***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 15.8 15.9 18.1 1.1 69.6 65.0 14.2 14.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 16.0 16.0 18.0 1.1 69.9 66.1 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 17.7 17.8 18.2 1.0 69.3 65.0 15.7 16.7 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.9 15.6 0.8 66.2 61.8 10.7 11.8 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.6 14.1 15.8 0.8 66.5 62.2 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 13.2 13.2 13.4 0.9 68.4 64.1 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 16.0 15.9 18.0 1.1 68.9 65.0 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 8.7 8.5 13.1 0.7 64.4 61.6 6.7 7.7 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.4 15.9 0.8 66.1 61.8 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.2 14.1 0.7 64.3 61.0 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.6 15.0 15.2 0.7 64.9 61.3 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 13.3 13.2 14.2 0.8 66.0 62.7 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.4 13.8 0.6 63.0 59.9 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.1 15.7 0.8 65.5 62.5 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.3 17.0 0.7 64.8 60.8 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.4 14.7 0.7 65.0 61.4 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 16.5 16.5 17.8 1.2 71.2 66.8 14.5 15.4 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.5 14.0 13.4 0.7 64.8 61.5 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 15.8 15.8 18.0 1.2 70.4 66.5 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 10.0 9.8 11.3 0.7 64.6 61.9 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 14.7 15.2 17.2 0.8 66.6 62.4 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.5 17.8 1.2 71.4 67.2 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 15.5 15.6 18.0 1.2 71.8 67.4 13.4 14.4 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.6 15.6 0.8 65.3 61.8 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 15.3 15.2 16.8 0.9 67.2 63.1 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.2 13.3 0.6 63.6 60.3 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 15.3 15.4 17.4 1.0 68.8 64.3 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.7 14.1 15.8 0.7 64.2 60.2 12.7 13.4 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 12.7 12.5 12.7 0.7 64.7 61.9 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 16.2 16.2 18.2 1.1 69.8 65.8 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------