***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 16.8 16.6 18.2 0.7 63.9 61.5 15.4 16.0 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.1 18.2 0.7 63.7 61.2 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 18.5 18.4 18.5 0.8 65.8 63.2 16.5 17.4 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 14.0 13.6 15.8 0.5 61.7 59.9 11.7 12.8 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 15.3 14.9 15.6 0.5 61.4 59.8 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 14.1 14.1 14.1 0.8 70.1 65.9 12.4 13.1 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 16.6 16.3 18.3 0.7 63.1 60.9 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 9.4 9.0 13.3 0.5 62.1 60.3 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 16.3 16.0 15.9 0.6 63.5 61.4 14.5 15.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 16.0 15.7 14.3 0.5 61.9 60.2 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 16.1 15.7 15.1 0.5 62.4 60.4 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 13.8 13.5 14.1 0.6 63.3 61.2 12.3 13.0 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.2 13.8 0.6 64.6 62.1 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 16.7 16.5 15.9 0.6 63.5 61.6 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 17.4 17.3 17.4 0.8 67.1 63.5 15.7 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 16.6 16.3 14.7 0.6 64.2 61.8 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 17.0 16.7 18.0 0.7 63.2 60.7 15.2 16.1 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 14.5 14.3 13.5 0.6 64.1 62.1 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 16.3 16.1 18.2 0.8 65.1 62.4 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.2 11.1 0.5 61.5 60.3 8.9 9.6 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 16.2 16.0 17.3 0.7 64.0 61.7 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 15.9 15.7 17.8 0.7 63.8 61.6 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.6 18.1 0.8 67.1 64.2 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 16.4 16.3 15.7 0.7 65.2 62.8 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 16.3 16.0 16.7 0.6 62.4 60.3 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 15.0 14.9 13.7 0.8 67.6 64.2 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 16.4 16.1 17.4 0.6 63.1 60.9 14.1 15.2 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 15.3 15.0 16.3 0.6 63.6 61.1 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 13.6 13.3 12.8 0.6 63.7 61.9 11.5 12.5 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 16.8 16.5 18.4 0.7 64.0 61.6 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------