***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 15.7 15.8 18.0 0.8 74.3 69.9 14.8 15.2 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 15.7 15.9 18.0 0.8 72.9 69.4 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 17.5 17.7 18.3 0.8 73.5 69.6 16.2 16.8 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 12.8 12.9 15.7 0.7 71.4 67.6 11.5 12.1 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 14.3 14.4 15.8 0.7 71.6 67.6 13.1 13.6 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 13.1 13.3 13.6 0.7 75.9 71.0 12.1 12.6 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 15.8 15.9 18.1 0.8 72.1 68.7 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 8.4 8.4 13.2 0.6 70.6 66.8 7.2 7.8 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 15.5 15.6 16.0 0.8 75.4 70.6 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 15.3 15.4 14.2 0.7 71.9 67.8 14.1 14.7 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 15.3 15.3 15.2 0.7 72.5 68.2 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 13.2 13.2 14.2 0.7 72.1 68.2 11.9 12.5 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 14.6 14.8 14.0 0.7 75.5 70.6 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 16.1 16.2 15.8 0.7 73.0 69.2 14.8 15.4 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 16.7 16.9 17.3 0.8 77.3 72.2 15.4 16.0 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 15.6 15.8 14.8 0.7 73.8 69.3 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 16.2 16.4 17.8 0.9 73.8 70.1 15.0 15.6 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 13.9 14.0 13.5 0.7 72.7 68.9 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 15.6 15.7 18.0 0.9 73.4 70.0 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 9.7 9.8 11.3 0.6 71.1 67.6 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 15.3 15.4 17.2 0.8 73.7 69.2 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 15.3 15.4 17.8 0.9 73.4 70.2 14.1 14.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 15.0 15.2 17.9 0.9 75.6 71.7 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 15.7 15.9 15.7 0.7 73.8 69.9 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 15.3 15.3 16.7 0.7 72.2 68.0 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 14.2 14.3 13.5 0.7 74.7 70.1 13.1 13.6 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 15.3 15.4 17.3 0.8 73.6 69.3 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 14.4 14.5 16.1 0.7 72.3 68.1 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 12.5 12.5 12.8 0.7 72.4 68.9 11.3 11.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 15.9 16.1 18.2 0.8 72.7 69.3 14.7 15.2 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------