***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 30.0 29.8 29.1 1.1 64.2 62.5 27.9 28.9 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 28.8 29.3 29.2 1.1 64.5 62.5 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 28.9 29.5 29.5 1.2 64.9 63.1 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 22.2 22.5 27.0 0.7 60.0 59.6 20.1 21.7 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 29.8 30.0 27.2 0.7 59.3 59.1 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 28.2 28.7 25.0 0.9 62.7 61.1 26.2 27.7 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 28.6 29.0 29.1 1.0 63.0 61.2 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 17.4 17.5 25.3 0.6 58.0 57.7 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 30.1 29.6 27.5 0.8 61.3 60.7 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 28.9 29.1 26.0 0.7 58.7 58.4 27.1 28.5 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.5 26.9 0.7 59.2 58.7 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 28.4 28.8 26.7 0.8 60.6 59.6 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 29.5 29.9 26.0 0.8 60.4 59.3 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 28.5 28.7 26.8 0.7 59.8 59.2 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 31.1 30.9 28.4 1.1 66.0 64.2 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 30.1 30.5 26.7 0.8 60.9 59.9 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.0 28.4 28.9 0.9 62.3 60.5 26.5 27.6 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 28.0 28.2 25.3 0.6 57.5 57.4 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 29.2 29.1 29.4 1.3 66.0 63.7 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 23.7 23.6 22.7 0.3 54.5 54.9 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 30.2 29.6 28.5 0.9 61.5 60.8 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.6 29.1 28.8 1.1 64.1 62.1 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 29.4 29.3 29.3 1.3 66.9 64.5 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 28.3 28.5 27.0 0.7 59.7 59.1 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 30.1 29.5 27.3 0.8 61.2 60.3 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 28.9 29.9 26.7 1.2 66.6 64.4 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 29.4 29.0 28.1 0.9 62.3 61.0 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 30.1 30.6 27.4 0.8 61.1 60.5 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.3 23.2 24.1 0.4 55.2 55.6 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 29.3 29.1 29.2 1.1 64.5 62.6 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------