***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 12.9 15.2 15.1 85.1 60.6 54.5 5.4 10.7 18.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.4 11.5 77.3 58.2 49.7 6.3 12.3 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 16.3 23.9 17.1 109.1 68.2 61.7 6.8 13.2 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 19.7 20.8 18.4 123.5 71.6 64.6 3.8 9.0 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 24.9 24.8 18.9 117.2 70.1 64.6 4.3 10.7 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 17.3 18.5 20.5 122.0 70.6 65.9 4.2 8.9 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 14.9 15.1 11.4 75.4 57.6 50.2 5.1 11.1 20.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 29.7 37.8 30.1 152.7 77.7 71.3 5.7 12.7 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 18.5 21.9 22.3 133.1 73.7 67.1 4.7 9.7 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 27.3 35.6 32.8 160.9 79.6 73.1 6.1 12.7 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 20.7 25.6 22.9 143.7 76.1 69.8 4.0 9.0 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 15.8 19.6 20.8 141.7 75.5 67.7 3.8 7.9 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 16.8 18.0 21.0 131.1 73.5 68.9 3.5 7.6 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 27.5 29.6 24.5 129.4 72.7 63.4 7.0 14.0 23.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 8.0 11.5 12.9 101.4 67.0 58.2 2.3 5.5 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 15.1 15.7 18.0 121.2 70.7 65.2 3.3 7.2 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.0 10.0 74.0 56.4 45.1 5.4 10.5 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 21.0 25.3 30.8 147.3 76.9 70.4 4.2 9.2 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.3 17.6 12.9 88.7 62.0 53.1 5.5 11.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 19.2 25.6 35.6 174.6 82.6 77.4 5.2 9.5 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 13.5 21.8 19.6 118.8 70.4 64.4 5.5 10.9 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 6.1 14.1 10.2 79.0 58.2 44.7 5.3 10.7 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.2 20.0 15.2 104.4 66.9 57.8 6.6 12.1 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 29.0 32.4 24.1 132.6 73.6 66.5 7.4 14.6 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 12.6 16.6 17.3 92.9 63.6 58.2 5.8 11.0 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 17.8 19.1 15.5 126.0 72.0 65.7 4.9 9.4 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 15.2 17.9 16.2 85.7 60.8 54.7 7.2 13.0 20.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 12.2 12.8 18.2 126.9 72.4 65.0 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 29.2 36.5 31.6 152.9 78.2 71.9 7.0 13.8 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 13.4 15.8 13.2 87.5 61.7 54.4 5.5 10.7 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------