***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.4 13.3 85.5 59.2 49.0 5.2 9.4 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 7.7 12.8 9.7 69.8 53.2 42.0 7.5 11.9 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.3 11.0 11.2 72.3 52.8 42.0 6.1 10.3 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.1 11.3 79.0 56.6 43.3 5.4 9.3 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.9 9.9 12.0 82.1 56.5 43.5 4.0 7.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.8 6.7 13.6 83.6 56.2 40.4 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.2 9.7 10.0 71.3 53.8 41.1 4.9 8.7 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.3 14.2 10.2 69.0 49.4 37.9 7.5 14.3 24.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.7 8.2 11.6 73.6 53.7 43.8 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 4.9 8.0 8.6 52.8 42.6 31.6 5.5 10.3 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 2.9 4.7 8.3 55.1 40.7 29.1 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.7 9.0 10.5 76.7 52.7 40.1 4.3 8.3 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.5 5.8 11.4 82.2 56.9 36.9 2.8 4.8 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.9 15.6 14.1 74.5 53.3 41.8 8.0 14.2 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.7 7.0 9.3 77.7 55.8 40.0 2.3 5.4 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.5 7.0 13.2 98.0 61.3 45.4 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.7 8.6 8.7 64.2 49.0 38.4 4.4 8.9 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.4 17.2 91.9 58.7 49.9 6.7 12.7 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 5.2 10.0 9.6 67.1 51.7 39.6 4.8 9.5 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 6.0 9.4 9.9 57.4 41.2 30.8 7.3 12.3 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 7.0 11.4 10.9 68.3 51.4 40.3 6.8 11.1 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.5 9.7 8.9 65.6 50.5 39.5 5.4 9.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 14.9 12.7 11.5 73.7 53.9 42.0 6.1 11.2 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 22.5 22.1 15.5 86.8 57.8 48.4 11.4 18.3 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 6.1 10.4 12.4 70.1 52.1 41.0 5.8 9.8 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.0 5.4 10.5 87.5 55.4 38.7 2.0 4.4 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.9 12.2 13.2 76.1 54.4 44.4 6.0 10.7 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.0 6.7 9.8 77.1 55.5 39.4 3.1 5.6 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.2 20.6 16.9 87.7 56.5 46.1 9.3 16.8 27.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 7.2 13.2 10.0 70.0 53.0 41.7 7.2 12.2 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------