***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.2 14.1 14.0 92.1 61.7 45.4 4.8 9.4 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.4 12.7 12.9 95.3 63.2 47.7 4.7 8.6 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.4 12.7 13.1 84.8 59.3 43.2 5.4 9.7 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 3.8 8.7 9.8 75.6 56.0 43.8 3.6 7.2 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.6 8.1 10.1 76.2 56.3 43.2 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.1 6.0 9.5 62.2 50.4 37.4 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 5.9 16.5 13.4 97.3 63.7 47.0 6.1 11.0 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 7.7 12.2 8.3 55.6 45.1 34.0 8.3 13.9 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.2 8.5 11.9 79.1 57.6 44.0 3.0 6.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 5.3 10.4 10.0 58.3 46.7 33.8 6.0 11.5 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 3.1 5.6 6.3 53.8 45.4 31.1 3.6 6.5 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.6 8.0 7.1 60.3 48.8 37.1 4.7 8.2 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.2 5.9 7.3 56.8 49.3 35.2 3.3 6.1 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 5.8 15.6 17.2 84.5 57.9 42.4 6.0 11.9 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.5 5.6 7.0 64.8 52.7 39.6 2.2 5.0 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.1 8.0 7.8 65.3 52.5 38.6 4.1 7.4 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.2 11.5 12.1 92.0 61.7 45.6 4.2 7.9 13.1 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 6.0 12.2 14.8 75.7 54.4 41.6 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.7 13.0 12.8 91.1 61.5 45.7 5.4 9.4 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 6.4 10.3 11.4 64.7 49.1 39.6 6.0 10.6 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.7 12.9 12.2 81.9 58.7 44.2 4.4 9.4 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.3 13.3 13.0 95.0 62.8 47.6 4.7 9.0 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 5.5 14.1 13.1 85.2 58.9 43.1 6.0 10.7 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 5.8 13.7 15.6 83.8 58.1 43.6 5.9 10.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.3 10.0 13.7 85.7 59.4 45.0 4.3 7.6 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.2 6.0 5.5 54.8 48.0 33.0 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 5.4 13.6 15.2 91.9 61.5 46.1 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.3 7.2 7.8 66.3 52.8 39.4 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.5 16.7 15.5 78.8 54.8 43.4 7.9 14.5 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 6.5 13.6 13.3 92.4 62.2 46.7 6.5 10.2 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------