***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.1 17.0 12.9 125.9 72.3 51.2 3.5 7.5 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.1 15.0 11.2 125.1 72.2 51.0 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.6 20.1 13.2 127.9 72.8 52.6 3.5 8.3 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.3 21.5 11.3 112.6 68.9 52.4 4.8 10.6 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.2 22.5 11.9 122.0 71.3 52.3 5.7 11.0 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.8 17.0 13.2 101.4 65.1 47.4 4.1 9.4 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.5 13.0 11.4 127.9 72.8 50.9 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 11.2 32.1 14.5 113.7 68.7 50.3 11.5 19.5 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.8 21.8 13.2 122.2 71.3 52.8 5.1 10.3 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.7 26.0 15.3 113.0 68.6 51.1 6.9 13.8 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.7 18.5 10.9 115.3 69.7 48.6 4.5 9.3 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 7.3 23.0 11.4 116.5 69.9 49.6 7.3 12.9 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 11.6 14.7 10.9 104.6 67.1 46.1 4.6 8.6 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.0 23.4 17.7 125.3 72.0 54.5 6.3 11.9 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.2 10.8 8.9 105.7 67.7 50.0 2.7 5.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.1 16.5 10.8 113.1 69.5 49.1 5.0 9.2 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.9 15.2 11.5 129.8 73.4 51.6 4.0 7.4 12.2 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.2 24.0 18.3 118.1 69.8 54.1 7.7 13.6 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 5.2 18.5 11.5 121.1 71.1 50.0 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.9 20.3 17.9 111.7 67.2 51.9 7.3 12.7 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.8 18.2 12.7 121.8 71.4 51.9 5.0 9.6 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.6 19.0 10.7 108.0 67.9 47.6 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.5 16.0 12.7 120.2 70.8 50.4 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.0 21.7 16.6 125.7 72.2 55.1 6.4 11.4 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 13.2 19.6 13.5 118.9 70.7 51.9 4.3 9.1 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 4.1 10.0 8.1 94.8 64.0 44.7 4.3 7.1 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 13.7 20.4 13.8 121.4 71.4 51.1 4.7 9.7 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.5 11.5 9.8 101.2 65.7 48.8 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.5 27.3 19.0 119.1 69.8 54.0 11.2 17.3 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.6 18.9 11.8 124.5 72.0 51.8 3.8 8.3 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------