***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 59.9 59.7 55.3 94.2 56.5 50.8 39.6 53.7 69.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 61.5 59.1 45.3 88.4 53.5 47.7 45.0 56.4 69.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 64.4 65.2 54.6 96.0 57.3 50.4 42.0 57.5 75.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 59.1 60.8 50.9 97.3 58.3 53.2 35.9 51.8 70.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 62.0 64.7 52.8 98.4 58.8 53.2 38.9 54.8 73.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 51.5 49.1 56.9 93.0 54.0 49.0 32.8 45.5 60.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 61.5 57.0 46.2 89.1 53.5 47.5 40.5 54.1 68.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 93.4 97.8 63.1 102.5 59.9 54.0 61.6 83.5 107.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 55.7 59.7 59.0 100.9 59.8 54.0 36.7 50.5 66.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 77.8 80.0 66.8 99.6 58.5 52.8 50.9 69.7 90.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 55.4 52.0 48.4 92.6 54.8 49.1 34.5 47.9 63.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 55.7 57.9 49.8 100.0 58.9 52.9 34.1 49.0 66.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 40.5 41.7 50.6 95.2 56.9 51.3 25.6 36.6 49.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 81.9 85.8 73.6 101.9 60.2 53.8 56.3 74.1 93.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 39.1 35.4 38.1 86.8 53.6 48.3 20.1 32.3 47.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 45.0 46.8 49.7 99.6 59.1 52.7 28.8 40.1 52.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 56.9 51.7 42.3 86.2 51.8 46.2 38.2 50.4 64.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 70.7 79.6 81.1 109.4 63.7 57.9 49.4 65.1 82.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 64.0 61.5 46.9 89.2 53.9 47.5 45.0 58.1 72.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 64.2 68.3 74.9 104.4 60.4 54.9 44.5 58.6 74.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 62.7 63.0 55.3 95.8 57.3 51.3 39.3 55.2 73.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 62.6 56.5 42.8 85.6 51.4 45.8 39.9 55.3 72.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 65.3 65.2 52.4 93.6 56.1 49.1 48.9 60.6 73.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 80.0 88.1 71.7 105.9 62.3 56.0 54.9 73.1 93.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 57.6 55.0 56.9 89.4 53.8 49.1 38.5 51.6 66.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 42.8 40.2 39.5 92.0 54.0 48.5 27.9 37.8 48.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 66.4 63.8 58.4 91.0 54.4 49.4 45.7 60.1 75.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 38.8 38.4 45.6 94.1 56.8 51.4 21.9 33.1 46.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 91.8 103.7 83.0 110.4 64.3 57.9 62.1 82.9 106.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 63.8 61.5 48.3 90.6 54.5 48.5 45.1 58.0 71.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------