***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.2 17.1 0.4 57.6 56.6 14.1 14.8 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.6 17.7 1.1 67.6 64.4 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.9 17.5 0.6 60.4 58.8 15.2 16.3 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.9 14.8 0.3 54.9 54.5 10.3 11.5 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.1 15.1 0.1 51.5 51.8 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.4 11.5 11.7 -0.6 37.5 40.0 11.3 12.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.6 17.7 1.0 66.8 63.6 13.9 14.8 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 7.7 6.4 11.5 -0.8 35.1 37.4 6.2 7.3 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 14.7 14.3 15.0 -0.1 48.0 49.2 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.5 13.7 12.8 -0.5 39.5 41.6 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 14.4 13.8 14.1 -0.4 41.8 43.6 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.3 11.5 12.7 -0.6 37.8 39.8 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.8 12.8 12.7 -0.8 33.5 36.2 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.2 15.0 14.9 0.1 51.7 52.0 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.7 16.2 0.3 55.8 55.1 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 14.7 13.8 13.5 -0.6 38.3 40.5 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 16.3 16.4 17.8 1.4 71.9 68.0 14.4 15.2 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 13.1 12.5 12.4 -0.3 43.6 45.1 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 15.5 15.5 17.8 1.1 69.1 66.0 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.2 10.3 -0.5 40.3 42.1 7.8 8.6 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.2 16.2 0.0 50.6 51.3 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 15.3 15.3 17.8 1.3 70.9 68.0 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 14.8 14.9 17.7 1.2 70.2 67.2 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.6 15.0 0.1 51.9 51.9 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.9 15.8 0.0 49.9 50.6 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.3 12.5 11.9 -0.6 37.1 39.5 12.4 13.1 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.1 16.5 0.3 55.4 54.7 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.5 15.1 0.1 52.9 52.8 12.6 13.3 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.6 10.5 11.3 -0.6 37.5 39.2 10.2 11.3 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 15.7 15.6 17.8 1.0 66.0 63.2 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------