***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 16.2 17.7 19.5 2.8 92.8 80.7 14.3 15.1 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 16.5 18.4 19.4 2.8 93.1 82.0 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 18.3 20.1 19.6 2.7 92.9 80.9 15.9 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 13.6 15.7 17.0 2.6 92.5 79.4 11.0 12.1 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 14.8 16.2 17.0 2.3 90.9 78.2 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 13.5 14.4 14.1 1.7 85.0 73.5 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 16.5 18.0 19.5 2.8 92.4 81.4 14.3 15.1 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 8.9 9.8 13.8 1.5 81.9 71.2 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 15.9 17.2 17.0 2.1 90.2 77.5 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 15.6 16.5 14.9 1.7 84.2 73.0 13.7 14.6 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 15.6 16.7 16.2 1.9 87.8 75.8 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 13.6 14.6 15.0 1.8 85.3 74.0 11.5 12.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 14.9 15.6 14.6 1.4 81.2 71.5 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 16.7 17.7 16.6 1.8 86.2 75.1 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 16.8 18.4 18.5 2.5 93.4 80.6 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 16.0 17.1 15.6 1.8 86.0 74.6 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 17.0 18.6 19.2 2.8 93.1 81.9 14.7 15.6 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 14.4 15.2 14.1 1.5 82.9 72.5 12.3 13.2 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 16.3 18.2 19.5 2.9 94.1 83.0 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 10.2 11.0 12.0 1.5 81.8 71.4 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 15.8 17.2 18.4 2.2 90.5 77.8 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 7 93 100 16.0 17.8 19.2 2.9 94.0 83.5 13.6 14.5 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 15.9 18.0 19.5 3.0 94.7 83.5 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 16.2 17.4 16.5 1.8 86.6 75.1 13.8 14.8 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 15.7 17.1 18.1 2.5 90.1 77.7 13.7 14.5 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 14.7 15.7 14.4 1.9 86.4 75.5 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 16.0 17.8 18.9 2.7 91.9 79.7 13.5 14.5 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 14.7 16.2 17.3 2.4 92.1 79.2 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 13.0 13.7 13.2 1.3 79.0 69.7 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 16.7 18.4 19.7 2.9 93.1 81.9 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------