***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.7 16.0 18.4 0.6 62.5 56.4 14.4 15.3 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 15.7 16.2 18.4 0.8 65.4 57.6 14.1 15.2 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 17.5 17.8 18.5 0.6 62.1 56.0 16.2 17.1 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.9 13.2 16.0 0.6 62.0 56.7 11.5 12.5 13.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.4 15.6 0.4 57.8 54.1 13.2 14.0 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.9 13.6 0.0 50.8 50.6 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 14.5 16.4 18.6 0.8 65.5 58.0 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.2 13.2 0.0 50.4 49.3 7.4 8.2 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.5 15.8 0.3 57.0 53.3 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 14.2 15.1 14.1 0.0 51.0 49.7 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.2 15.2 15.1 0.3 57.3 54.0 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.0 14.0 0.1 53.1 51.5 12.1 12.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.5 14.0 13.2 -0.2 46.0 47.6 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 14.9 15.9 15.6 0.1 51.1 49.1 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 15.7 17.2 17.4 0.7 65.3 59.3 15.9 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 14.4 15.6 14.4 0.2 54.7 52.9 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.8 18.3 0.8 65.2 57.3 15.1 16.0 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 12.4 13.3 13.0 -0.2 45.9 46.7 12.6 13.5 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 15.7 16.2 18.4 0.8 66.0 58.0 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.3 9.0 10.7 -0.3 43.4 45.4 8.5 9.3 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.3 17.2 0.3 56.9 52.9 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 14.0 15.9 18.1 0.7 64.7 57.1 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.2 15.7 18.2 0.8 66.3 58.2 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 14.5 15.5 15.4 0.1 52.0 50.1 14.6 15.4 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.6 16.8 0.4 58.6 53.8 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 13.1 14.1 13.3 0.2 55.0 53.3 13.2 13.9 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.7 17.6 0.6 62.6 56.3 13.8 14.9 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 13.3 14.8 16.3 0.6 62.3 57.5 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 11.1 11.8 12.4 -0.2 44.4 45.6 11.3 12.1 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 16.1 16.5 18.6 0.7 64.7 57.5 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------