***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 29.2 30.3 30.2 3.1 81.5 76.2 25.9 27.3 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 28.7 30.4 31.2 3.9 85.4 80.3 25.1 26.7 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 28.8 29.5 30.2 2.9 78.1 73.8 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 21.9 22.3 26.5 2.1 73.9 69.7 18.4 20.0 21.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 29.0 28.9 27.1 1.6 67.4 64.7 25.5 27.2 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 26.4 25.9 23.2 0.1 51.4 51.6 24.2 25.8 27.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 28.5 30.0 30.8 3.5 83.9 78.7 25.0 26.6 28.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.9 23.9 0.5 55.9 55.2 13.8 15.3 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 28.8 29.0 28.6 2.2 73.6 69.6 25.0 26.7 28.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 27.2 27.7 25.6 1.2 62.7 60.9 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 28.5 28.2 27.2 1.4 65.3 63.0 25.2 26.8 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 26.5 26.9 25.3 0.9 60.4 58.9 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 27.6 27.7 25.8 0.7 58.1 57.2 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 28.5 28.8 28.2 2.3 72.6 69.6 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 30.0 31.1 29.7 2.8 82.1 76.1 26.4 28.0 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 28.2 28.8 26.3 1.1 63.1 61.2 26.0 27.6 29.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 28.2 30.0 31.0 4.1 87.2 81.8 24.7 26.2 27.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 26.5 26.7 24.4 0.9 59.5 58.4 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 28.2 29.9 31.3 4.0 85.7 80.7 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 22.1 21.6 21.5 0.0 50.3 50.5 19.9 21.6 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 28.9 29.0 29.3 2.2 72.5 68.9 25.2 26.8 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 28.6 30.5 30.7 3.9 86.3 81.4 24.9 26.5 28.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 28.7 30.4 31.3 4.2 86.4 81.5 25.0 26.5 28.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 28.0 27.9 27.7 1.8 68.5 66.1 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 29.0 29.4 28.3 2.2 74.1 69.9 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 27.1 26.7 23.9 0.2 52.4 52.4 24.9 26.5 27.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 28.3 29.1 29.2 2.7 78.5 73.6 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 29.9 30.1 27.4 1.9 72.7 68.4 26.4 28.0 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 21.8 21.8 23.4 0.6 56.9 56.2 19.5 21.2 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 28.6 30.0 31.0 3.6 83.7 78.8 25.1 26.6 28.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------