***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 29.8 32.0 31.2 4.2 93.1 83.9 26.8 28.0 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 29.4 31.3 31.3 4.2 92.1 83.2 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 29.6 31.5 31.3 4.1 91.7 82.4 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 22.5 25.1 28.9 4.3 94.2 84.5 19.3 20.6 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 30.1 32.3 29.3 3.9 91.3 81.6 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 28.6 30.0 26.1 3.0 86.3 76.9 25.6 26.8 28.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 29.3 31.0 31.1 4.0 91.4 82.0 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 17.9 19.3 26.5 3.1 85.4 76.2 14.9 16.2 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 29.7 32.0 30.0 4.1 92.4 82.8 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 29.2 30.9 27.7 3.5 87.5 78.3 26.1 27.5 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 29.8 32.0 29.4 4.0 91.0 81.4 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 28.7 30.5 28.1 3.6 88.6 79.2 25.6 26.9 28.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 29.9 31.5 27.9 3.3 86.9 78.2 26.8 28.1 29.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 28.9 30.0 28.5 3.1 84.6 75.8 26.5 27.6 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 30.4 33.7 31.2 4.7 96.9 87.7 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 30.7 32.8 28.7 3.8 90.3 80.8 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 28.8 30.5 30.8 4.1 91.4 82.1 26.1 27.2 28.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 28.4 29.5 26.3 2.9 82.3 73.8 25.5 26.8 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 29.0 31.0 31.4 4.4 92.9 83.9 26.4 27.4 28.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 24.1 24.9 23.6 2.3 77.6 70.2 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 29.7 31.6 30.6 3.9 90.8 81.0 26.7 27.9 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 29.2 30.9 30.5 3.9 91.0 81.8 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 29.3 31.4 31.4 4.6 93.5 84.5 26.5 27.6 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 28.8 30.1 28.7 3.3 85.9 76.8 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 29.6 31.6 29.5 3.9 91.9 82.0 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 29.5 31.3 27.5 3.5 88.7 79.4 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 29.2 31.2 30.2 4.0 92.3 82.9 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 30.5 32.9 29.7 4.3 94.2 84.4 27.6 28.8 29.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 23.6 24.5 25.2 2.6 79.7 71.8 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 29.3 31.2 31.3 4.2 92.2 83.3 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------