***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 27.5 29.3 28.3 0.7 60.2 56.6 27.7 28.7 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 28.7 29.1 28.6 0.9 63.1 58.3 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 26.9 28.9 28.5 0.6 58.2 54.7 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 22.1 22.2 26.4 0.6 58.6 56.2 20.0 21.5 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.3 26.4 0.2 53.7 52.2 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 25.6 27.0 23.5 -0.4 44.2 45.1 26.1 27.5 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 28.5 28.9 28.6 0.8 62.2 57.7 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 15.0 16.4 24.2 -0.3 46.0 46.0 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 29.1 28.9 26.6 0.3 54.6 52.2 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 26.8 28.2 24.9 -0.1 49.0 48.1 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.9 26.1 0.3 54.2 52.3 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 28.3 27.7 25.6 0.0 49.4 48.8 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 29.4 28.2 24.4 -0.5 42.9 44.5 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 26.5 27.7 25.5 -0.3 45.6 45.5 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 30.1 30.6 27.7 0.8 63.3 58.9 28.2 29.6 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 30.0 29.6 25.6 0.1 51.5 50.6 28.0 29.5 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.0 28.4 28.5 0.9 63.2 58.6 26.4 27.5 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 25.6 26.8 23.9 -0.5 41.9 43.0 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 28.3 28.7 28.6 0.9 62.7 57.8 26.7 27.8 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 21.0 21.7 21.1 -1.0 34.8 37.8 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 27.0 28.8 27.4 0.2 53.0 51.2 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 28.7 28.9 28.0 0.7 60.4 56.3 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 26.7 28.7 28.3 0.7 60.4 55.9 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 26.2 27.5 25.7 -0.2 47.1 46.7 26.6 27.7 28.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 27.0 28.9 26.4 0.3 55.3 53.5 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 26.8 28.5 25.3 0.1 51.2 50.0 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 26.6 28.6 27.4 0.6 58.8 55.6 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 30.1 30.2 26.7 0.5 58.4 55.8 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 20.7 21.6 22.6 -0.9 37.3 39.7 21.3 22.6 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 28.5 28.8 28.5 0.8 61.8 57.4 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------