***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 29.4 30.0 30.6 2.0 76.3 65.9 26.9 28.1 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 29.4 30.0 30.7 2.2 77.0 65.9 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 29.3 30.0 30.9 2.1 76.6 66.4 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 22.7 23.4 29.0 2.2 78.3 69.0 19.8 21.1 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 29.8 30.3 28.9 1.9 75.3 66.3 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 28.6 28.4 25.8 1.2 67.6 61.8 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 29.5 29.9 30.5 1.9 74.8 64.0 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 17.6 17.7 26.7 1.5 70.4 62.6 15.1 16.3 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 29.4 30.0 29.2 2.0 76.2 66.5 26.7 28.0 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 29.0 29.2 27.6 1.7 72.6 63.9 26.4 27.6 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 29.4 29.9 28.7 2.0 76.3 67.2 26.6 27.8 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 28.6 28.8 28.2 1.7 72.8 65.0 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 29.6 29.4 27.0 1.2 66.2 61.1 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 28.1 29.0 28.1 1.5 69.9 61.7 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 30.7 31.5 30.1 2.4 81.3 71.4 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 30.6 30.8 28.2 1.8 73.7 66.1 27.7 29.0 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 29.1 29.5 30.5 2.0 75.5 65.2 26.6 27.7 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 27.3 28.0 26.6 1.3 67.6 60.3 25.6 26.8 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 28.9 29.6 30.9 2.3 78.3 67.1 26.5 27.6 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 21.1 23.2 23.6 0.7 60.2 55.4 21.3 22.5 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 29.4 29.9 29.9 1.8 74.0 64.9 26.8 28.0 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 29.3 29.8 30.2 2.0 75.7 65.4 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 29.0 29.7 30.8 2.3 78.7 67.7 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 28.7 28.9 28.4 1.6 71.2 63.0 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 29.6 30.1 28.8 1.8 74.1 64.9 27.2 28.3 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 29.3 29.4 27.7 1.6 71.8 65.1 27.0 28.0 29.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 29.1 29.6 29.6 1.9 75.0 64.8 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 30.7 31.4 29.3 2.2 78.7 69.6 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.7 23.2 25.3 1.0 63.9 57.6 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 29.2 29.8 30.7 2.1 76.4 65.4 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------