***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 28.9 29.6 30.1 2.5 88.3 80.6 27.4 28.0 28.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 28.7 29.6 30.5 2.8 89.0 82.4 27.0 27.7 28.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 28.8 29.6 30.2 2.4 86.5 79.2 27.0 27.7 28.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 21.9 22.9 27.7 2.3 87.7 80.2 20.0 20.8 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 29.3 30.0 27.9 1.9 83.1 76.0 27.4 28.2 29.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 27.7 27.8 24.6 1.0 71.0 65.9 26.0 26.8 27.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 28.6 29.4 30.2 2.6 87.6 80.7 26.9 27.6 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 17.0 17.2 25.3 1.2 73.5 67.9 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 28.9 29.8 28.6 2.2 86.0 78.3 26.9 27.7 28.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 28.5 28.9 26.5 1.6 78.0 71.6 26.7 27.5 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 28.9 29.6 27.8 1.9 83.2 76.1 26.9 27.8 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 27.9 28.4 26.8 1.5 78.4 72.1 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 29.0 29.2 26.3 1.2 73.0 68.0 27.2 28.1 28.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 28.2 28.6 27.6 1.6 78.0 71.5 26.8 27.5 28.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 30.0 31.3 29.7 2.7 92.1 85.0 28.0 28.8 29.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 29.8 30.5 27.2 1.7 80.6 74.0 27.8 28.7 29.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 28.2 29.1 30.2 2.8 89.3 82.7 26.5 27.2 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 27.6 27.7 25.3 1.1 71.1 65.8 25.9 26.7 27.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 28.3 29.3 30.5 2.9 89.8 83.0 26.6 27.3 27.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 22.7 22.9 22.5 0.5 60.5 57.5 21.6 22.4 23.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 28.9 29.6 29.3 2.0 83.5 76.0 27.0 27.8 28.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 28.7 29.5 29.9 2.7 88.5 82.0 26.9 27.6 28.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 28.5 29.5 30.4 2.9 90.4 83.5 26.8 27.5 28.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 28.0 28.4 27.6 1.6 78.1 71.6 26.4 27.1 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 29.0 29.7 28.3 2.1 84.5 77.1 27.2 27.9 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 28.5 28.9 26.1 1.3 75.6 70.2 26.9 27.7 28.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 28.4 29.2 29.1 2.3 86.8 79.1 26.7 27.4 28.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 30.0 31.0 28.3 2.2 87.2 79.8 28.0 28.9 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 22.3 22.8 24.1 0.8 66.4 62.0 21.2 22.0 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 28.5 29.4 30.4 2.7 88.3 81.5 26.8 27.5 28.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------