***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 4.2 4.0 3.4 21.9 27.0 22.4 5.4 10.3 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 3.8 3.5 3.1 21.9 26.2 21.5 5.1 10.4 17.9 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 4.4 5.1 3.9 26.6 30.7 23.8 5.8 11.5 19.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.5 5.5 5.4 37.7 38.8 32.4 4.1 8.8 15.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.7 6.6 5.5 39.5 40.7 33.1 4.4 10.5 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.3 7.1 7.3 49.9 44.7 37.9 4.2 8.7 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 3.6 3.7 3.0 21.0 26.1 20.9 5.4 10.6 18.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.7 11.8 10.1 65.0 50.7 42.2 5.3 11.6 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 3.5 5.6 5.7 39.1 38.6 30.6 4.3 8.9 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.8 9.5 8.9 52.7 44.5 36.3 5.4 11.7 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.4 7.3 6.4 48.6 45.6 37.3 4.0 8.7 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.8 7.9 7.6 60.0 50.4 42.3 3.7 7.8 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.7 5.2 5.1 34.9 40.8 34.1 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 5.9 8.7 6.7 38.8 37.9 29.5 6.9 13.5 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.8 3.6 3.7 30.6 36.4 27.8 3.0 6.5 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.4 4.9 5.1 38.3 40.8 34.2 3.4 7.2 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 3.5 3.7 3.7 26.0 29.0 23.7 4.7 9.4 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.2 6.7 9.7 53.8 44.7 37.0 3.6 8.4 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 4.0 3.9 3.5 23.7 27.9 22.7 5.0 10.4 18.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.4 10.5 11.8 67.5 52.3 44.5 5.5 9.8 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 3.1 4.2 4.8 33.1 34.3 26.6 3.9 8.8 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 4.0 3.7 3.7 24.7 29.6 24.6 4.4 9.3 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 5.9 8.0 4.7 30.7 33.9 26.5 7.9 13.2 20.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 5.1 7.8 6.5 40.3 38.4 30.2 6.0 12.9 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 4.2 4.4 4.2 24.6 29.9 24.6 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 12.1 8.1 5.0 47.3 46.9 40.2 4.8 9.0 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 4.4 4.2 3.6 21.3 26.5 22.0 5.8 11.4 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.3 4.6 5.6 40.9 41.7 33.6 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.9 11.5 9.4 52.7 44.6 37.3 7.4 14.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 4.8 4.5 3.0 20.5 25.5 20.9 6.2 11.2 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------