***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 8.4 14.1 13.1 72.2 54.0 40.0 8.2 12.9 18.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 7.6 15.4 12.8 86.0 59.0 45.0 7.6 12.4 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 6.6 13.3 14.1 80.1 56.8 42.6 6.9 11.2 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.0 11.8 12.4 81.4 58.3 40.7 4.8 9.1 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.6 9.0 11.8 73.9 54.7 37.2 3.7 7.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.6 8.1 12.2 70.9 53.5 41.5 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 5.2 11.4 12.6 86.4 59.4 45.7 5.0 8.7 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 8.5 17.9 11.9 70.8 52.3 37.6 8.5 16.5 27.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.7 8.8 12.5 73.9 54.6 37.2 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 5.2 12.3 13.6 75.8 54.5 37.7 5.4 10.6 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.6 8.1 12.0 73.0 52.2 37.2 3.8 7.5 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 4.5 9.3 9.8 64.9 49.8 36.3 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 2.9 6.2 9.9 64.7 50.9 37.0 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 8.7 19.6 17.3 85.0 58.1 43.6 8.6 15.4 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.9 9.8 12.3 90.4 61.7 43.0 2.3 5.8 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.4 10.4 68.2 52.2 37.7 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 5.7 14.3 11.8 83.0 57.8 44.4 5.4 10.8 18.9 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 7.6 17.6 16.5 86.8 59.1 43.6 7.5 13.4 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 6.1 14.2 13.5 88.2 60.0 45.7 5.6 10.5 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.0 13.8 14.5 79.8 55.7 43.2 6.6 11.7 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 6.5 14.1 13.1 76.5 55.5 38.5 7.0 12.2 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 7.6 16.7 13.2 91.0 61.0 45.3 7.1 12.4 19.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 13.8 14.0 14.3 88.1 59.9 45.6 5.6 10.3 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 10.6 23.5 16.9 91.1 60.7 44.7 10.9 17.9 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.4 12.0 13.9 75.9 55.4 40.2 6.4 10.5 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.4 6.9 10.2 74.9 54.1 43.3 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 7.8 14.8 14.3 74.9 54.4 40.4 7.9 13.1 20.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.1 7.9 11.2 79.6 57.9 39.2 3.1 6.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.9 24.8 17.8 89.9 59.7 46.0 10.0 18.4 29.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 8.4 17.0 13.1 83.7 58.4 45.0 8.2 13.6 20.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------