***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.9 17.4 13.2 105.6 66.7 50.3 3.9 9.0 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.9 14.5 11.8 102.0 65.7 47.2 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.2 15.2 11.9 95.2 63.3 50.2 4.8 9.7 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.8 13.3 12.1 111.5 68.7 53.1 3.4 6.9 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.3 13.5 12.3 107.9 67.6 52.7 3.6 7.3 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.8 8.9 14.2 111.9 68.3 49.8 2.7 5.1 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.1 20.2 13.1 112.9 68.7 49.0 6.2 11.4 18.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 16.0 20.0 13.8 113.2 68.6 53.9 7.9 12.8 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.2 14.1 12.9 100.6 65.6 52.6 3.4 7.8 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.7 19.5 15.1 108.3 67.2 53.6 5.8 11.1 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 8.9 12.4 11.7 116.9 70.0 52.3 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.0 12.9 11.1 113.8 68.9 51.9 3.5 7.0 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.1 8.5 11.9 119.8 70.8 52.2 2.6 4.6 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.8 18.7 16.3 103.1 65.8 51.9 5.3 10.8 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.4 9.9 11.2 120.1 71.2 53.2 1.9 4.3 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.9 9.6 11.9 121.1 71.0 53.2 3.1 5.4 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.8 8.0 11.8 100.5 65.5 47.7 2.4 4.8 8.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.5 16.5 17.4 107.7 66.6 53.6 6.9 11.1 16.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 6.3 15.2 11.5 98.0 64.5 47.6 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.6 18.6 17.0 118.0 69.6 56.9 6.3 10.8 16.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.5 16.7 12.6 101.5 65.8 50.6 4.8 9.7 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.1 12.5 11.9 98.5 64.7 47.3 5.0 8.5 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.8 16.7 11.6 94.0 63.4 49.1 6.3 11.3 18.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.6 16.5 15.0 99.9 64.7 52.1 5.7 10.5 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.6 14.9 14.2 110.8 68.4 51.5 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.9 9.0 9.0 112.9 69.0 48.9 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.2 15.9 14.4 108.4 67.5 50.3 4.2 8.6 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.3 12.3 11.8 114.6 69.6 53.4 2.8 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.3 22.6 18.5 115.8 68.8 55.9 8.6 14.1 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.4 14.8 12.0 101.4 65.3 48.6 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------