***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 3.2 7.9 7.6 69.1 55.2 35.2 3.6 6.7 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 4.0 10.7 9.0 91.4 63.2 40.3 4.2 7.3 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.4 9.8 8.3 71.4 56.0 35.0 3.9 7.8 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 3.3 7.6 5.1 52.3 47.4 31.8 3.5 8.6 17.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 4.4 10.2 5.6 57.8 50.4 32.2 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.5 6.6 5.3 45.8 42.3 34.2 4.1 9.4 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.6 7.5 8.9 90.1 62.5 40.3 2.7 5.1 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 10.2 20.3 7.7 64.8 52.6 37.6 10.6 18.7 29.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 3.8 9.5 6.9 62.2 52.3 32.7 4.7 8.8 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 6.7 15.3 8.8 68.1 54.3 36.9 7.2 13.3 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 3.2 8.6 5.4 59.5 50.9 33.4 3.9 8.3 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 6.7 12.1 5.1 55.1 48.6 34.2 7.3 12.7 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.9 7.5 4.4 48.3 45.2 34.4 4.8 8.8 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 5.1 12.0 9.8 66.5 53.6 38.6 5.4 10.6 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 2.2 4.0 3.5 43.9 42.1 28.8 2.5 5.5 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 4.4 7.8 4.5 51.8 46.7 33.6 4.5 8.7 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 3.7 8.7 7.0 67.2 54.6 36.8 4.1 7.5 12.3 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 7.1 16.2 11.2 76.8 57.3 40.9 7.4 13.1 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.7 12.2 8.9 85.6 61.5 39.8 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.5 13.6 10.5 74.7 54.7 42.4 7.5 12.1 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 4.1 9.1 6.9 63.6 53.2 32.4 4.8 8.3 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 4.7 12.9 7.9 75.4 57.5 38.4 5.2 10.1 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.8 9.4 8.2 71.6 56.6 38.0 4.2 7.6 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 6.2 12.8 9.7 71.2 55.3 38.3 6.9 11.2 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.6 8.7 6.6 61.1 51.5 33.6 3.9 8.3 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.8 6.2 3.8 56.2 48.9 36.6 3.8 6.4 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 4.1 10.3 7.7 69.2 54.9 35.2 4.3 8.7 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.6 4.7 4.1 44.7 43.0 30.5 2.8 6.3 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 14.4 23.2 11.5 77.1 56.6 42.0 15.3 20.9 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.7 12.6 9.8 98.2 65.2 41.2 3.4 7.4 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------