***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 36.7 43.8 37.3 65.0 37.4 34.2 40.5 54.3 69.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 41.2 49.7 36.7 72.6 43.2 39.3 42.7 54.3 66.9 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 36.7 45.8 38.2 67.8 39.2 36.0 40.5 55.7 73.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 33.6 43.2 35.0 69.8 41.9 37.9 35.2 50.8 69.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 35.4 44.3 35.3 69.2 40.9 37.5 37.2 53.0 71.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 30.8 37.3 38.9 69.5 39.2 36.8 32.9 46.0 61.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 38.4 45.8 37.6 74.8 43.6 39.6 38.8 50.3 63.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 59.8 75.4 43.5 76.8 44.4 40.8 61.6 82.6 105.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 33.2 40.1 38.0 68.5 40.0 36.7 34.8 48.3 64.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 49.2 60.4 46.3 75.3 43.1 39.3 50.6 67.6 86.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 32.6 40.6 35.5 73.3 42.6 39.1 33.2 46.4 61.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 34.9 44.4 33.6 71.8 42.5 38.9 36.8 50.6 66.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 21.8 26.4 31.3 63.8 36.8 34.4 24.3 35.0 47.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 52.3 63.7 50.0 73.4 41.9 38.6 54.6 72.1 91.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 20.5 28.6 30.7 71.2 44.5 39.3 20.6 33.0 48.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 25.8 31.9 32.0 67.6 39.3 36.3 27.9 38.9 51.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 36.3 41.6 34.3 67.9 39.8 37.0 36.8 48.8 61.8 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 45.7 59.6 54.8 81.1 46.7 42.1 47.5 62.8 80.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 40.2 49.7 37.3 71.7 42.6 38.7 42.3 55.6 70.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 42.6 55.4 53.8 84.0 47.3 43.8 44.5 57.5 71.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 36.0 44.6 37.4 68.2 40.8 36.6 37.7 53.5 71.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 38.7 47.4 36.6 70.6 42.4 38.6 39.2 54.1 71.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 44.9 52.6 38.9 70.2 40.8 37.7 47.1 58.8 71.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 51.1 64.0 48.0 76.0 44.0 39.9 52.9 70.5 89.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 34.2 42.0 38.9 66.1 38.4 34.6 38.0 50.8 65.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 25.4 31.9 28.0 71.8 43.4 39.3 26.3 35.5 46.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 39.2 47.7 40.0 66.3 37.9 34.5 43.6 58.3 75.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 20.9 27.6 32.7 69.7 42.7 38.8 21.2 33.0 47.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 61.4 81.3 57.3 83.8 47.7 43.2 63.4 83.7 106.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 41.6 50.5 38.0 72.8 42.9 39.1 42.9 56.1 70.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------