***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 15.5 16.0 18.4 0.8 65.1 63.1 14.5 15.3 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 15.5 16.1 18.2 0.8 65.3 63.1 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 17.3 17.8 18.6 0.7 63.1 61.5 16.2 17.1 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 13.4 13.5 16.3 0.9 68.5 66.1 11.3 12.4 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 14.9 14.9 16.6 0.8 67.6 65.5 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 13.6 13.8 14.3 1.0 72.1 69.2 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 15.6 16.1 18.3 0.7 63.5 61.7 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 9.0 9.2 14.2 0.9 69.9 67.6 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 16.0 16.0 16.9 0.9 69.7 67.5 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 15.7 15.9 15.2 1.0 70.8 68.4 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 15.6 15.7 16.3 0.9 70.1 67.8 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 13.6 13.6 15.2 0.9 68.3 66.1 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 15.1 15.2 15.0 0.9 70.6 68.0 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 16.5 16.5 16.6 0.8 67.4 65.1 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 16.8 17.1 18.2 1.1 73.3 69.9 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 16.1 16.2 15.7 0.9 69.9 67.5 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 16.7 16.8 18.1 1.0 68.5 65.5 14.9 15.8 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 14.4 14.5 14.6 0.9 69.3 66.9 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.9 18.2 0.8 64.9 62.9 14.2 15.2 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 10.3 10.4 12.4 0.9 70.1 67.5 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 15.1 15.7 18.0 0.7 64.9 63.3 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 45 55 100 15.6 15.7 18.2 1.0 68.2 65.4 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 46 54 100 15.6 15.6 18.2 0.8 66.0 63.9 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 16.0 16.0 16.6 0.8 66.7 64.6 14.0 15.0 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 15.7 15.7 17.5 0.9 67.5 65.2 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 14.7 14.8 14.4 0.9 68.5 66.1 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 15.8 15.8 17.9 0.9 67.2 64.8 13.8 14.8 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 14.6 14.7 16.8 0.9 69.4 66.8 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 13.0 13.2 13.8 0.9 69.2 66.8 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 15.9 16.3 18.4 0.7 63.6 61.8 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------