***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 15.9 16.1 18.7 1.0 77.5 74.5 14.9 15.3 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 15.9 16.1 18.4 1.0 75.6 73.2 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 17.7 17.8 18.8 0.9 72.4 70.5 16.4 17.0 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 13.1 13.4 16.6 1.1 80.2 77.5 11.7 12.2 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 14.5 14.7 16.8 1.0 79.5 77.1 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 13.4 13.9 14.7 1.2 87.2 83.5 12.2 12.6 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 15.9 16.1 18.5 1.0 73.2 71.1 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 8.7 9.0 14.5 1.1 83.4 80.6 7.5 7.9 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 15.7 16.0 16.9 1.1 80.8 78.4 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 15.6 15.9 15.4 1.1 82.7 80.1 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 15.5 15.8 16.5 1.1 81.8 79.3 14.2 14.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 13.4 13.7 15.4 1.1 81.8 79.0 12.1 12.6 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 14.8 15.1 15.1 1.1 84.0 80.7 13.5 14.0 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 16.2 16.3 16.6 0.9 76.0 74.0 15.0 15.5 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 16.9 17.4 18.3 1.2 84.2 80.9 15.6 16.1 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 15.9 16.2 15.9 1.1 82.9 80.0 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 16.5 16.7 18.3 1.2 78.8 75.8 15.2 15.8 16.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 14.1 14.3 14.7 1.0 80.2 77.9 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 15.7 15.9 18.4 1.0 75.0 72.8 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 10.0 10.3 12.5 1.1 82.9 79.9 8.7 9.2 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 15.5 15.6 18.1 0.9 75.7 73.5 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 15.4 15.6 18.3 1.1 77.1 74.5 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 15.2 15.3 18.4 1.0 75.3 73.3 14.1 14.5 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 16.0 16.1 16.6 0.9 75.9 74.0 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 15.5 15.8 17.6 1.2 82.2 78.5 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 14.4 14.8 14.6 1.1 84.5 81.3 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 15.5 15.9 18.1 1.2 81.0 77.5 14.0 14.7 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 14.7 15.0 17.1 1.1 81.2 78.4 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 12.7 12.9 13.9 1.0 79.7 77.4 11.5 12.0 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 16.1 16.2 18.6 1.0 73.7 71.5 14.8 15.4 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------