***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 27.4 28.0 27.5 -0.6 40.9 43.0 27.5 28.5 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 28.6 27.6 27.6 -0.6 41.4 43.1 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 28.6 27.4 27.8 -0.7 39.7 41.8 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 22.0 20.5 25.8 -0.7 39.6 42.4 19.9 21.3 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 27.3 27.9 26.0 -0.8 38.2 40.9 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 25.7 26.5 23.8 -0.6 40.0 42.5 25.9 27.4 28.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 26.5 27.3 27.6 -0.6 42.1 43.6 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.1 15.6 24.2 -0.8 38.5 40.8 15.1 16.5 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 26.9 27.5 26.1 -0.8 39.0 41.4 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 28.7 27.4 24.8 -0.7 39.4 41.6 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 29.0 27.7 25.8 -0.6 40.4 42.6 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 28.1 26.7 25.5 -0.8 38.9 41.3 26.3 27.6 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 29.3 27.8 24.7 -0.7 39.0 41.7 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 28.3 27.4 25.9 -0.5 42.6 44.2 26.8 27.9 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 27.9 28.7 27.0 -0.6 41.1 43.4 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 27.7 28.5 25.5 -0.6 40.3 42.9 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 27.9 27.2 27.7 -0.3 46.3 47.1 26.3 27.5 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 27.7 26.5 24.2 -0.7 39.8 42.0 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 28.2 27.1 27.7 -0.6 41.6 43.3 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 23.4 21.9 21.9 -0.7 39.3 41.6 21.3 22.8 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 26.8 27.4 27.0 -0.8 38.0 40.7 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 28.5 27.9 27.6 -0.2 47.5 48.2 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 28.3 27.4 27.7 -0.5 43.2 44.7 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 28.0 26.9 25.8 -0.7 40.2 42.4 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 26.9 27.7 25.9 -0.7 40.1 42.7 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 26.6 27.8 25.5 -0.4 44.2 45.6 26.9 28.2 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 28.3 27.3 26.7 -0.5 42.6 44.5 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 27.9 28.6 26.2 -0.7 39.1 42.0 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.0 21.7 23.3 -0.7 40.0 42.2 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 26.6 27.2 27.6 -0.7 40.3 42.2 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------