***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 26.8 27.7 28.2 -0.6 42.1 43.3 27.1 28.2 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 28.8 28.1 28.5 -0.3 45.6 46.3 27.2 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 26.9 27.8 28.6 -0.5 43.0 44.0 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 19.8 20.6 26.6 -0.7 40.7 42.1 20.0 21.3 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 27.0 27.8 26.7 -0.7 40.0 41.8 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 25.9 27.0 24.6 -0.4 43.5 44.2 26.2 27.4 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 28.9 28.0 28.4 -0.4 44.5 45.5 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 15.0 15.9 25.0 -0.6 42.0 43.4 15.3 16.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 26.6 27.5 26.9 -0.6 41.6 43.1 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 26.4 27.3 25.6 -0.6 42.6 43.8 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 26.6 27.5 26.5 -0.6 42.4 43.7 26.8 28.0 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 25.9 26.8 26.3 -0.6 42.2 43.6 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 27.0 27.9 25.5 -0.6 41.1 42.7 27.3 28.5 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 28.4 27.8 26.6 -0.2 47.5 47.9 26.9 27.9 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 29.8 28.8 27.8 -0.5 42.8 43.8 28.2 29.3 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 27.7 28.6 26.2 -0.6 42.1 43.3 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 28.4 27.9 28.5 -0.1 49.1 48.9 26.8 27.9 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 25.5 26.5 25.0 -0.5 43.6 44.7 25.7 26.9 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 28.3 27.6 28.6 -0.3 46.2 46.6 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 21.2 22.1 22.6 -0.6 42.2 43.6 21.5 22.7 23.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 26.8 27.5 27.7 -0.8 40.1 41.9 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.4 28.4 0.1 51.1 50.4 27.2 28.3 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 28.4 27.9 28.6 -0.2 47.9 47.9 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 26.2 27.3 26.5 -0.4 44.5 45.5 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 27.2 27.9 26.5 -0.8 39.7 41.4 27.4 28.5 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 26.9 28.1 26.5 -0.1 48.6 48.1 27.2 28.2 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 26.6 27.5 27.4 -0.5 42.5 43.7 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 27.8 28.7 27.1 -0.6 41.5 42.8 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 20.7 21.7 24.0 -0.5 43.5 44.7 21.0 22.2 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 28.6 27.7 28.4 -0.4 44.1 45.1 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------