***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 21.6 34.4 37.0 213.9 86.4 71.5 5.3 10.3 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 22.3 51.1 49.3 301.5 93.8 77.4 5.0 10.0 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 23.7 43.6 40.3 246.3 89.6 72.4 6.5 12.0 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.7 23.7 24.4 149.8 77.5 58.2 3.7 8.3 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 13.9 30.0 22.7 143.4 76.4 60.7 4.4 10.2 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.2 14.1 16.6 113.9 68.9 52.7 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 24.7 65.2 54.0 332.0 95.4 78.5 4.5 9.7 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 22.8 27.5 26.0 135.1 74.3 64.0 4.8 10.8 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 14.9 20.3 24.9 150.3 77.3 64.7 3.4 7.3 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 22.0 29.7 29.5 153.1 77.9 67.6 4.8 10.4 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.7 22.2 21.4 137.2 75.2 60.8 3.6 8.2 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 9.3 14.3 17.5 115.0 69.5 58.2 3.2 6.9 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 8.8 12.9 16.1 109.7 69.3 57.8 3.4 6.9 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 28.6 41.3 36.7 178.6 81.8 69.0 6.4 13.4 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.8 18.2 25.9 183.2 82.5 56.0 2.6 5.5 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.7 16.3 18.5 128.2 73.2 58.3 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 24.4 54.0 47.0 286.5 93.1 77.2 5.1 10.4 18.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 19.9 27.4 31.2 161.4 79.4 70.0 3.4 8.1 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 23.6 47.6 44.2 264.6 91.2 75.0 5.3 10.6 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 16.9 20.5 29.0 143.7 76.2 65.7 5.0 9.1 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 18.7 30.2 28.3 181.3 82.2 66.5 3.4 8.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 21.0 37.4 38.4 225.5 88.0 70.2 4.7 9.4 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 24.0 40.5 38.4 219.9 87.2 72.3 6.9 12.5 20.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 28.1 42.0 31.2 187.1 83.4 71.4 6.6 13.0 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 17.3 21.6 28.3 151.8 77.8 62.1 5.0 9.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.7 14.3 13.8 116.1 69.9 57.2 3.5 7.2 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 23.5 35.3 35.5 195.6 84.0 68.4 5.5 11.0 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.3 11.6 24.1 160.6 79.0 57.2 2.6 4.9 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 28.2 37.0 31.3 162.1 79.4 69.7 7.4 14.3 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 22.9 48.6 48.8 299.0 93.3 75.3 6.1 11.1 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------