***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 20.0 26.6 24.9 166.9 80.7 66.1 6.5 11.3 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 21.1 26.5 19.5 162.6 79.9 62.1 7.7 12.4 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 19.1 26.4 24.0 164.6 80.8 61.2 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 17.3 23.7 20.7 170.5 81.3 64.1 4.2 8.4 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 14.5 20.7 21.6 181.6 83.2 64.6 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 13.3 15.0 18.5 137.8 74.8 61.8 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 15.8 17.8 17.6 142.9 75.9 57.7 5.2 8.8 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 33.3 42.7 21.3 159.1 78.9 61.9 9.2 17.2 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 16.0 23.4 25.1 193.6 84.7 67.2 4.4 8.0 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 22.6 28.9 23.2 164.5 79.7 62.9 6.3 11.7 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 15.3 20.7 21.1 164.3 80.4 62.2 3.7 7.4 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 18.6 24.2 19.4 161.5 79.7 62.8 5.3 9.7 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.9 11.5 17.2 137.0 74.5 58.2 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 25.2 31.9 23.2 151.1 77.9 60.3 7.4 13.6 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 14.7 22.4 16.9 163.3 80.1 62.6 2.4 5.9 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 12.0 15.1 18.4 148.1 77.2 61.0 2.4 5.4 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 21.3 24.6 17.3 139.7 75.2 57.9 5.6 10.8 18.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 25.5 30.4 24.6 155.5 78.8 63.9 9.3 14.9 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 19.1 26.5 21.5 173.6 82.0 63.4 5.7 10.2 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 22.4 25.2 20.4 141.5 75.5 61.5 6.4 11.7 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 23.2 32.0 25.2 177.9 82.7 64.2 6.2 11.7 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 8.5 26.8 18.0 143.1 75.8 56.3 8.1 13.6 20.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 21.0 30.0 23.1 176.6 82.8 63.2 6.6 11.6 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 28.7 36.9 24.8 159.7 79.7 62.8 9.1 15.8 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 17.8 22.8 25.2 166.4 80.8 64.2 5.6 9.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.4 12.6 13.7 133.6 73.2 55.3 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 22.9 27.5 24.3 151.3 77.6 63.6 7.5 12.8 19.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 12.7 17.7 18.0 165.1 80.4 63.0 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 33.5 38.9 22.6 143.3 76.0 61.9 9.8 18.0 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 21.7 27.6 20.4 161.0 79.8 60.1 7.5 12.5 19.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------