***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.4 23.7 15.3 142.1 75.8 55.5 3.4 8.3 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.6 18.2 13.3 133.7 73.9 52.6 4.6 8.7 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.6 17.9 13.0 125.4 71.9 53.0 3.8 8.3 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.4 18.2 14.3 149.5 77.3 56.0 4.0 7.5 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.5 18.4 13.4 138.4 75.2 56.7 3.8 7.7 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.5 13.4 13.9 133.1 74.0 59.4 4.0 6.9 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 6.0 21.9 13.5 135.0 74.2 49.5 5.3 10.2 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.1 25.7 13.3 128.9 73.1 56.6 9.1 14.8 21.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.2 20.8 13.6 131.0 73.7 57.0 4.3 9.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.0 23.7 14.6 127.3 72.8 56.6 5.8 11.2 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.7 15.1 11.0 122.6 71.8 54.4 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.9 16.2 10.4 121.2 71.4 55.4 4.2 8.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 6.3 10.6 11.1 131.0 73.6 58.9 2.6 4.9 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 15.7 23.1 17.3 121.1 71.1 56.5 5.5 11.1 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.2 9.9 10.1 123.4 72.1 49.7 1.9 4.2 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.9 12.1 11.7 134.3 74.4 57.0 4.1 6.6 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.0 7.9 13.0 127.8 72.4 49.4 1.8 3.6 6.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 19.8 22.2 17.8 134.1 74.1 61.9 8.1 12.7 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.6 18.9 13.1 127.2 72.4 52.4 5.2 9.5 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 19.7 24.3 17.8 149.4 77.3 64.0 7.5 12.2 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.9 23.2 14.4 143.9 76.3 56.2 4.3 9.0 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.9 14.8 13.3 121.7 71.0 50.7 4.7 8.3 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 6.3 19.3 13.4 119.7 70.7 51.8 5.9 10.5 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.4 21.4 15.4 125.8 72.3 58.4 5.8 10.8 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.2 19.5 17.6 158.9 79.2 56.6 3.8 7.4 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.6 11.5 8.9 137.6 75.1 60.1 2.9 5.3 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.2 19.5 17.6 148.0 77.0 55.9 3.4 7.3 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.9 13.7 12.6 133.6 74.2 52.9 2.3 5.3 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 25.3 28.2 18.1 135.5 74.4 62.2 10.3 16.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.6 17.6 13.6 129.0 72.8 52.1 5.0 8.9 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------