***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 4.3 13.3 8.6 109.3 68.5 45.8 4.8 8.1 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.3 11.5 7.4 90.4 63.0 42.4 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.4 15.3 9.0 114.8 69.8 44.5 3.4 7.4 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.6 28.1 9.4 142.9 76.3 49.1 5.0 10.7 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.2 19.6 8.7 121.1 72.1 48.7 6.2 10.7 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 5.0 25.2 11.0 129.5 73.7 52.7 4.0 9.7 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.8 7.3 89.3 62.7 42.5 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.8 26.5 9.6 102.5 66.8 48.4 8.6 15.8 25.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 4.6 15.6 9.3 113.3 70.5 47.9 4.7 8.6 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 6.2 21.0 10.9 106.2 68.1 48.0 6.3 11.9 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.3 17.4 8.5 125.2 72.8 50.7 4.0 8.0 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.1 20.6 7.8 112.9 69.7 48.4 5.7 10.9 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.5 15.9 8.7 122.7 72.6 48.2 4.2 7.8 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.0 25.9 13.6 126.3 73.0 49.2 5.8 11.8 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.7 16.9 8.8 152.0 78.1 45.9 2.4 5.7 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.2 17.2 9.0 133.5 74.7 50.1 3.6 7.3 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 4.6 13.1 8.2 94.8 63.9 42.2 4.8 8.6 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.1 19.9 13.1 110.7 69.1 49.2 5.7 10.9 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 5.9 15.4 8.2 96.9 65.2 42.9 6.1 10.2 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.1 16.9 12.6 108.9 68.1 49.7 6.8 10.9 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.9 15.1 9.3 123.8 72.6 48.4 5.1 8.4 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 5.6 17.0 9.2 97.8 65.7 43.4 5.7 10.5 17.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.7 15.8 9.9 117.1 70.7 45.4 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.7 18.3 11.9 121.7 71.8 49.3 5.7 10.0 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.2 20.4 9.3 121.8 71.7 48.0 4.7 9.7 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.8 11.9 6.5 117.3 70.9 47.0 3.8 6.6 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 5.7 22.9 8.8 106.8 67.9 45.2 5.7 11.9 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.6 18.3 9.6 141.0 76.2 48.0 3.3 7.0 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 14.1 26.7 13.5 113.3 69.5 50.8 14.1 19.3 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 4.4 13.2 7.5 92.0 63.5 41.8 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------