***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 77.1 95.5 85.8 168.7 84.1 73.5 40.5 54.3 69.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 71.4 96.1 89.5 192.4 90.2 76.1 43.8 54.5 66.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 80.3 106.2 86.3 175.4 86.7 73.9 39.6 54.0 70.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 77.9 93.4 68.8 154.3 80.4 69.1 35.4 51.0 69.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 77.3 88.7 66.3 148.8 78.8 68.7 36.6 51.9 69.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 65.6 68.3 60.0 127.7 72.3 63.6 30.5 44.3 60.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 68.6 95.8 92.3 197.8 90.8 77.3 38.5 49.6 61.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 113.3 120.1 70.1 134.0 74.5 67.4 60.2 81.1 104.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 69.5 79.8 72.9 151.3 79.8 69.9 34.2 47.2 62.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 93.9 102.2 78.1 141.3 77.0 68.8 48.9 65.5 84.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 67.4 74.6 62.0 139.5 76.0 67.4 33.5 46.7 61.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 70.6 74.7 55.2 128.6 72.3 65.0 36.1 50.3 66.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 47.9 49.7 53.1 124.0 70.7 63.8 22.9 33.4 45.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 100.9 120.1 90.9 149.3 79.9 69.3 56.0 74.3 95.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 52.3 69.1 61.7 159.8 81.2 67.1 20.9 32.7 47.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 54.2 59.0 57.7 136.1 74.5 66.7 27.1 37.9 50.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 67.5 90.3 85.4 179.6 87.6 74.5 38.2 49.6 62.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 87.6 98.8 86.6 143.5 78.3 69.8 46.9 62.6 80.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 76.5 104.5 87.0 182.0 88.1 74.3 42.9 56.2 70.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 77.6 83.8 79.7 137.2 76.4 68.7 43.8 57.2 71.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 81.1 98.6 77.1 162.8 82.7 72.1 37.7 53.0 70.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 75.8 98.2 78.9 157.7 82.6 68.9 40.3 54.9 71.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 77.2 96.1 84.7 169.0 85.2 72.4 48.0 59.9 73.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 93.9 112.4 83.3 153.8 81.6 71.4 52.5 68.9 87.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 71.8 83.3 80.4 152.9 80.6 70.5 37.5 50.2 64.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 47.6 49.7 42.9 125.3 71.2 62.6 24.3 34.0 45.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 91.9 110.4 86.2 158.5 81.9 72.1 44.2 61.3 80.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 51.8 62.6 64.3 152.1 79.1 67.1 20.8 32.3 46.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 115.0 128.0 85.5 141.3 77.8 69.6 63.2 83.4 106.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 77.5 105.2 90.2 189.4 89.5 74.9 43.4 56.1 70.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------