***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 16.2 16.8 20.2 2.5 85.1 82.3 14.1 14.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 16.2 16.7 19.8 2.1 80.4 78.0 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 18.1 18.9 20.4 2.4 83.9 81.3 15.4 16.5 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 13.5 14.3 17.3 2.1 83.2 80.4 10.4 11.6 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 14.3 14.8 17.9 2.1 82.5 80.0 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 13.3 13.4 14.3 1.4 75.5 73.7 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 16.1 16.7 19.8 2.3 82.8 80.0 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 9.0 9.3 14.5 1.5 76.8 74.7 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 15.8 16.2 17.8 1.9 80.8 78.9 13.7 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 15.6 15.9 15.7 1.7 80.0 77.8 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 15.5 15.7 17.2 1.7 78.3 76.4 13.6 14.3 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 13.3 13.5 15.7 1.5 75.6 73.8 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 14.6 14.7 15.7 1.3 73.6 72.2 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 16.5 17.4 18.0 2.3 86.7 84.1 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 16.8 17.0 18.8 1.6 77.4 75.8 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 15.6 15.8 16.4 1.4 74.6 72.9 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 16.7 17.3 19.7 2.5 85.0 82.3 14.5 15.4 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 14.3 14.9 15.5 2.1 84.5 81.9 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 16.0 16.5 19.9 2.2 81.4 79.1 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 10.0 10.5 13.4 1.9 81.8 79.0 8.1 8.8 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 15.6 16.2 19.4 2.3 85.2 82.7 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 15.7 16.5 20.1 2.6 86.8 84.2 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 15.4 16.0 19.9 2.3 83.2 80.9 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 16.2 17.1 18.0 2.3 86.6 84.0 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 15.3 15.7 18.7 2.0 80.2 77.6 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 14.4 14.7 15.1 1.9 80.5 78.2 12.5 13.3 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 15.4 16.0 19.4 2.3 82.8 80.0 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 14.7 15.1 17.6 1.9 80.5 78.1 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 13.1 13.7 14.4 1.9 81.7 79.4 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 16.3 16.8 20.1 2.2 81.0 78.4 14.0 15.0 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------