***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 16.6 17.4 20.5 2.3 87.7 79.4 14.9 15.6 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 16.2 17.3 20.3 2.2 86.1 78.1 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 18.4 19.5 20.9 2.2 87.8 79.8 16.1 17.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 13.7 14.8 17.8 1.9 86.0 78.9 11.1 12.2 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 14.9 15.6 17.6 1.7 82.9 76.1 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 13.6 14.1 15.1 1.1 75.9 71.0 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 16.3 17.4 20.5 2.3 87.5 79.7 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 9.0 9.7 15.4 1.6 82.2 75.0 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 16.1 16.9 17.8 1.8 84.7 77.4 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 16.0 16.9 16.3 1.8 85.6 78.0 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 15.8 16.3 17.1 1.5 80.0 73.9 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 13.6 14.1 16.2 1.4 78.6 72.5 11.7 12.5 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 15.0 15.4 15.1 1.1 74.6 69.8 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 16.7 17.9 18.1 2.1 89.7 81.2 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 17.5 18.2 19.1 1.7 83.9 77.2 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 16.3 16.7 16.2 1.3 77.9 72.2 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 16.7 17.7 20.3 2.3 88.6 80.1 14.9 15.7 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 14.5 15.7 15.5 2.0 89.3 81.0 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 16.0 16.9 20.5 2.2 86.2 78.2 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 10.3 11.3 13.0 1.6 85.2 77.5 8.2 9.1 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 16.0 17.1 19.4 2.1 87.3 79.0 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 15.8 16.9 20.3 2.4 89.3 80.6 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 15.6 16.5 20.5 2.2 87.0 79.0 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 16.5 17.7 17.9 2.1 89.6 81.2 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 16.2 17.2 18.7 2.1 86.6 78.6 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 14.6 14.9 14.9 1.0 72.5 68.2 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 16.4 17.8 19.6 2.2 87.6 79.3 13.7 14.8 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 15.2 15.9 18.0 1.7 84.0 77.1 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 13.4 14.7 14.9 1.9 88.7 80.2 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 16.5 17.4 20.6 2.2 86.2 78.5 14.4 15.2 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------