***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 16.5 16.7 19.9 1.3 73.4 65.7 14.5 15.4 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 16.4 16.6 19.7 1.1 70.9 63.6 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 18.4 18.7 20.2 1.2 72.7 65.6 16.5 17.4 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 13.9 14.1 17.3 1.0 71.0 64.2 11.9 12.8 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.5 15.0 17.2 0.8 67.4 61.9 13.3 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 12.1 13.5 14.9 0.4 60.1 56.9 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 16.7 17.0 19.9 1.2 72.3 64.7 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 9.3 9.3 15.1 0.8 69.5 62.9 7.5 8.4 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 16.1 16.3 17.3 0.9 69.6 63.6 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.3 15.9 1.0 71.9 64.8 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.7 16.8 0.6 64.3 59.8 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.3 13.6 15.9 0.6 64.8 60.0 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.6 14.7 0.3 58.4 56.6 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 16.9 17.2 17.5 1.2 75.5 67.9 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.8 17.4 18.8 0.9 68.6 62.5 15.8 16.5 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 15.8 16.0 15.8 0.5 61.2 58.1 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 17.3 17.6 19.6 1.3 73.5 65.2 15.4 16.3 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 14.6 15.0 15.1 1.2 77.6 68.9 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 16.5 16.7 19.9 1.2 71.2 64.1 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 10.2 10.6 12.6 1.0 75.0 66.8 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.4 18.9 1.2 73.3 66.0 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 16.1 16.5 19.6 1.3 74.5 66.5 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 15.9 16.1 19.8 1.2 72.0 65.3 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 16.6 17.0 17.3 1.2 76.0 68.1 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.5 18.3 1.1 73.0 65.1 14.2 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 13.3 14.4 14.6 0.4 60.1 56.9 13.4 14.1 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.5 19.1 1.2 73.8 65.6 14.0 15.0 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.6 15.2 17.6 0.8 68.1 62.4 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 13.2 13.7 14.5 1.1 77.2 68.5 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 16.9 17.0 20.0 1.1 70.8 63.8 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------