***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 29.5 30.9 31.9 4.0 86.7 83.6 25.9 27.3 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 29.0 29.8 31.2 3.0 79.8 77.2 25.5 26.9 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 29.4 30.3 31.9 3.7 82.8 79.9 25.6 27.1 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 22.3 23.5 28.2 3.5 84.8 81.5 18.6 20.1 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 29.7 30.7 29.4 3.3 81.5 78.2 25.9 27.5 29.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 49 51 100 27.5 27.9 25.4 1.8 69.3 67.2 24.5 26.1 27.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 28.9 30.0 31.1 3.2 83.1 80.1 25.3 26.8 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 17.5 18.3 26.9 3.0 78.5 75.1 14.1 15.6 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 29.2 30.4 30.4 3.5 82.4 79.1 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 29.0 30.1 28.1 3.4 81.7 78.1 25.2 26.8 28.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 29.0 29.7 29.6 2.9 77.3 74.2 25.5 27.1 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 28.0 28.6 28.1 2.7 75.0 72.3 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 27.6 28.9 28.1 1.8 67.4 65.8 25.7 27.3 28.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 29.4 30.8 30.2 4.0 86.2 82.7 25.5 27.0 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 29.9 30.5 30.9 2.8 78.3 75.6 26.8 28.2 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 46 54 100 29.4 29.8 28.4 2.1 70.4 68.4 26.3 27.9 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 28.5 29.9 31.2 3.5 85.3 82.1 24.9 26.4 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 28.4 29.5 27.2 3.5 82.4 78.7 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 28.6 29.4 31.5 3.3 80.4 77.8 25.1 26.5 27.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 24.0 24.9 24.7 3.0 79.3 75.8 20.3 22.0 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 29.4 30.7 31.6 3.8 84.9 81.5 25.6 27.1 28.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 29.2 30.8 31.3 3.8 86.6 83.4 25.3 26.9 28.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 29.1 30.0 31.7 3.6 81.9 79.1 25.4 26.9 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 28.9 30.1 30.0 3.8 84.4 80.8 25.0 26.6 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 29.5 30.7 30.2 3.5 84.1 80.9 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 27.2 28.6 26.9 1.9 68.9 67.1 25.2 26.8 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 28.9 30.2 30.9 3.6 85.9 82.7 25.3 26.8 28.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 30.2 31.0 29.2 3.0 80.1 77.1 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 23.9 25.1 26.4 3.5 82.7 78.7 19.8 21.5 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 29.0 29.8 31.4 3.2 80.5 77.9 25.4 26.9 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------