***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 30.3 31.6 31.8 3.5 87.0 80.6 27.6 28.7 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 29.7 30.7 31.6 3.2 85.1 79.2 27.2 28.3 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 29.9 31.1 32.0 3.3 84.9 78.6 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 23.2 24.8 28.6 3.1 85.9 78.8 19.9 21.3 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 30.7 31.7 29.3 2.7 81.3 75.3 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 28.7 28.7 25.3 1.3 67.6 64.2 26.0 27.3 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 29.7 31.0 31.5 3.4 87.7 81.3 27.1 28.1 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 18.4 19.0 27.1 2.5 78.9 72.8 15.4 16.7 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 30.1 31.2 30.0 2.9 82.7 76.6 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 29.9 31.1 28.2 2.9 83.0 76.4 26.6 28.0 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 30.3 30.7 29.2 2.3 76.6 71.6 26.9 28.3 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 29.3 29.6 28.3 2.1 74.5 69.5 26.0 27.5 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 30.1 30.1 27.6 1.4 66.7 63.6 27.2 28.7 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 29.5 31.0 30.2 3.7 89.6 82.0 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 30.9 31.8 30.7 2.6 81.7 75.9 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 31.0 31.1 28.2 1.7 70.7 66.8 27.7 29.2 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 29.2 30.7 31.7 3.8 90.3 83.5 26.6 27.6 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 29.1 30.5 27.5 3.2 85.6 78.2 25.9 27.2 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 29.3 30.3 31.8 3.2 84.7 78.9 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 24.9 25.9 24.7 2.6 81.6 74.8 21.5 22.9 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 30.3 31.6 31.2 3.3 85.5 78.7 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 29.6 31.3 31.9 4.0 90.9 84.1 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 29.5 30.6 32.0 3.4 85.0 79.0 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 29.4 30.8 30.0 3.4 87.3 80.0 26.4 27.6 28.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 30.1 31.3 29.9 3.1 85.5 78.9 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 29.8 29.6 27.2 1.4 67.1 64.0 26.9 28.3 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 29.6 30.9 30.8 3.3 87.1 80.6 26.9 28.1 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 31.1 32.0 29.3 2.6 81.7 75.4 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 24.4 25.7 26.5 3.1 85.4 77.8 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 29.5 30.5 31.7 3.1 84.5 78.8 27.0 28.1 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------