***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 28.9 29.7 31.2 1.4 68.1 62.4 27.2 28.4 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 28.9 29.5 30.9 1.2 64.7 60.1 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 28.9 29.6 31.5 1.4 67.3 62.2 27.2 28.4 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 21.9 22.9 29.1 1.4 69.2 63.1 20.3 21.5 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.8 29.1 1.0 63.5 59.3 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 28.1 27.9 25.7 0.3 55.1 53.0 26.6 27.6 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 28.9 29.6 30.9 1.3 66.5 61.2 27.4 28.5 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.4 27.3 0.9 62.3 57.9 15.5 16.6 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 28.9 29.4 29.2 1.1 64.2 59.9 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 28.5 29.1 28.0 1.2 65.4 60.3 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 28.8 29.0 28.7 0.7 59.2 56.2 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 28.1 28.2 28.7 0.6 58.4 55.3 26.4 27.6 28.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 27.4 29.0 27.4 0.3 54.0 52.3 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 29.2 29.4 29.0 1.5 69.8 63.7 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 29.9 30.5 30.1 1.1 65.2 60.5 28.4 29.5 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 30.0 30.0 28.2 0.5 57.1 54.6 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 28.5 29.3 30.9 1.4 68.8 62.7 26.9 28.0 29.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 28.5 28.5 27.4 1.5 69.2 62.7 25.9 27.1 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 28.4 28.9 31.2 1.2 65.2 60.7 26.8 27.9 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 23.4 24.0 24.6 1.2 67.0 60.4 21.8 22.9 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 28.9 29.7 30.5 1.4 68.1 62.6 27.2 28.4 29.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 29.6 29.7 30.9 1.6 70.1 64.0 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 28.5 29.1 31.3 1.3 66.1 61.5 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 29.1 29.1 29.1 1.5 69.0 63.1 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 30.0 30.0 29.3 1.4 68.8 62.8 27.6 28.8 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 28.9 28.7 28.0 0.2 53.0 51.2 27.5 28.5 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 28.6 29.5 30.2 1.4 68.7 62.6 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 29.9 30.6 29.3 1.1 65.7 60.7 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 23.8 23.9 26.2 1.4 69.1 62.3 21.2 22.5 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 28.7 29.3 31.0 1.2 64.9 60.3 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------