***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 29.0 29.8 31.7 2.9 89.2 83.7 27.6 28.2 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 28.8 29.5 31.3 2.4 85.4 80.3 27.3 27.9 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 29.0 29.8 31.9 2.8 86.7 81.8 27.2 27.9 28.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 22.2 23.2 28.8 2.6 89.4 82.2 20.2 21.0 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 29.5 30.3 29.3 2.2 84.0 78.1 27.6 28.4 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 27.8 27.9 25.5 1.1 70.1 65.5 26.3 27.0 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 28.8 29.6 31.2 2.6 88.5 82.8 27.1 27.8 28.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 17.2 17.7 27.2 2.0 81.6 75.4 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 29.1 29.9 29.8 2.4 84.9 79.3 27.1 27.9 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 28.8 29.6 28.2 2.4 85.5 79.4 26.9 27.7 28.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 28.9 29.5 29.2 1.9 78.6 73.3 27.1 27.9 28.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 28.0 28.4 28.5 1.7 76.4 71.1 26.3 27.1 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 29.1 29.2 27.6 1.1 68.2 64.5 27.4 28.3 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 28.6 29.6 29.8 3.0 91.7 85.9 27.1 27.7 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 30.0 30.7 30.5 2.1 83.6 77.3 28.2 29.0 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 29.8 30.1 28.2 1.4 72.7 68.1 28.0 28.9 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 28.4 29.4 31.3 2.9 91.4 85.7 26.7 27.4 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 28.0 29.0 27.5 2.7 89.0 82.3 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 28.4 29.1 31.6 2.5 85.2 80.5 26.8 27.5 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 23.6 24.5 24.8 2.2 85.7 78.7 21.8 22.6 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 29.2 30.1 31.0 2.7 88.3 82.5 27.2 28.0 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 7 93 100 28.9 30.0 31.4 3.1 92.0 86.8 27.2 27.8 28.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 28.7 29.3 31.7 2.7 85.8 81.3 27.0 27.7 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 28.4 29.4 29.7 2.8 89.9 83.9 26.6 27.3 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 29.2 30.2 29.8 2.6 88.8 82.4 27.4 28.1 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 28.7 28.7 27.5 1.1 68.6 64.9 27.1 27.9 28.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 28.7 29.6 30.6 2.7 89.9 83.8 26.9 27.6 28.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 30.2 30.9 29.3 2.2 84.4 77.7 28.2 29.1 29.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 23.4 24.5 26.4 2.6 89.4 82.3 21.4 22.2 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 28.7 29.4 31.4 2.5 85.1 80.2 27.0 27.7 28.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------