***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 3.9 5.9 7.1 41.5 39.5 30.7 4.5 8.6 14.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 4.2 5.8 5.7 37.9 35.6 27.4 5.2 9.9 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 5.0 7.8 6.4 38.9 39.0 28.6 6.0 11.7 19.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.0 7.8 9.3 60.3 49.8 41.8 3.6 7.8 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.8 5.7 6.6 37.8 40.2 30.9 4.0 8.9 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.3 5.4 9.3 58.0 48.3 40.4 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 4.0 5.6 6.3 41.2 38.1 29.5 4.4 9.0 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 5.4 7.5 8.7 45.8 41.1 34.3 5.3 10.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 2.8 4.3 7.6 43.1 41.1 31.5 2.8 6.5 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 3.6 5.2 8.5 40.7 38.7 30.3 3.9 9.2 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 2.9 4.3 6.0 37.2 39.6 30.2 2.9 6.8 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.8 4.8 7.6 51.5 45.9 38.2 2.4 5.6 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 2.0 3.7 5.7 36.0 40.1 29.4 2.5 5.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 4.6 7.5 8.1 37.0 36.3 24.9 6.4 12.6 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.5 5.6 7.3 59.3 51.4 40.8 2.6 5.4 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.4 4.2 6.7 43.8 42.7 33.1 2.7 5.5 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 4.4 6.6 6.4 44.4 40.5 31.1 4.6 9.4 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 3.1 5.2 10.7 48.4 39.9 30.7 3.5 8.3 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 3.8 5.2 5.4 35.5 35.0 26.7 4.8 9.7 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 4.0 5.5 10.2 45.1 37.4 30.1 4.5 8.7 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.1 6.0 7.3 41.8 40.2 30.6 4.1 9.2 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 4.5 6.2 5.7 37.9 38.2 28.5 4.9 10.2 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 4.3 7.0 6.3 39.4 38.6 27.7 5.5 10.8 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 5.6 9.1 8.4 42.7 39.5 28.4 7.0 13.4 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 5.1 7.0 7.4 40.0 40.5 30.7 5.3 9.5 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.8 4.3 4.3 36.9 40.0 32.9 3.0 6.3 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 4.6 6.9 8.0 44.9 41.5 31.8 4.8 9.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.9 4.3 8.2 55.2 48.1 40.2 2.6 4.5 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 6.0 8.9 9.9 44.9 37.3 28.9 7.3 14.2 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 5.2 7.7 5.9 38.3 36.5 27.5 6.6 12.0 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------