***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 7.8 18.0 12.4 91.4 62.4 42.2 8.1 13.2 19.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 7.6 14.9 8.5 71.1 54.5 37.4 8.5 13.3 19.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.0 14.4 11.7 88.1 60.8 42.1 5.9 10.5 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.6 16.1 15.2 117.2 69.8 48.5 4.4 8.4 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.3 16.5 15.8 127.7 72.4 53.5 4.1 7.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.5 12.9 15.0 106.4 66.4 51.6 4.4 7.9 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 6.0 14.2 9.6 85.2 59.8 40.6 6.6 11.0 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.8 27.1 14.1 107.5 67.0 49.0 8.8 16.3 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.9 12.7 13.9 105.1 66.5 47.5 3.7 7.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 9.2 21.7 14.3 105.4 66.6 48.7 9.3 14.7 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.9 15.7 14.4 116.8 69.4 51.2 5.0 9.0 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 6.6 17.1 12.0 102.7 65.5 47.5 7.0 11.5 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.0 11.2 14.5 123.1 71.6 56.1 4.0 6.5 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 8.8 20.8 13.1 80.9 57.8 40.0 9.4 16.6 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.7 19.0 13.8 135.7 74.3 50.6 2.9 7.0 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.1 11.9 13.6 112.4 68.6 49.7 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 4.9 13.3 8.8 73.1 55.2 37.7 5.5 11.0 18.8 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 7.3 18.8 14.6 92.4 61.6 46.2 7.3 13.3 21.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 4.8 11.2 9.0 71.3 54.3 36.8 5.4 9.8 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.1 19.3 16.4 105.3 65.2 50.7 7.0 12.4 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 5.8 17.2 13.6 99.7 64.9 43.6 6.0 10.8 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 5.7 12.1 8.4 64.2 50.7 35.3 6.8 11.9 19.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 6.8 15.2 9.8 72.1 53.8 36.1 8.1 13.7 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 8.0 20.6 13.2 88.0 60.3 43.4 8.3 15.0 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 6.0 17.0 16.8 117.7 69.7 49.1 6.0 10.1 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.6 12.1 13.7 118.2 69.8 57.8 4.1 7.1 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 9.0 21.9 14.3 95.8 63.4 43.5 9.4 15.6 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.8 15.2 14.6 129.2 72.7 51.1 3.2 6.8 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 9.8 24.1 15.7 92.5 60.9 47.2 9.3 17.3 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 8.2 15.8 9.0 72.7 55.3 37.5 8.7 13.8 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------