***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.6 13.6 10.6 97.7 64.4 42.7 3.1 7.4 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 3.5 11.9 8.7 95.3 63.4 41.0 3.8 7.5 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.4 12.7 10.2 92.3 62.8 45.9 3.8 8.0 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.2 14.3 11.4 107.3 67.8 45.8 3.7 7.7 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.3 14.5 11.8 118.6 70.7 49.6 3.0 6.5 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.7 12.4 13.1 108.4 67.5 51.5 4.0 7.4 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.6 14.3 9.8 111.5 68.2 41.9 3.7 7.6 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.4 25.6 14.4 123.9 71.7 52.6 8.2 14.1 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.8 17.6 12.2 109.7 68.2 49.8 4.3 9.0 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.8 20.0 14.6 116.5 69.9 51.8 5.3 10.4 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.4 14.1 10.9 125.4 72.3 50.3 3.2 6.6 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.2 17.1 11.4 124.4 72.0 50.4 3.7 7.9 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.1 11.9 12.1 125.9 72.5 50.8 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.5 14.9 13.5 94.0 63.4 45.5 5.3 9.9 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.4 10.5 10.8 125.3 72.2 48.6 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.9 11.6 11.1 118.9 70.7 48.4 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 1.5 6.0 8.8 104.4 66.1 42.0 1.6 3.4 6.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.5 17.3 15.8 104.6 66.3 49.6 7.6 11.9 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 5.2 15.3 8.9 90.7 62.3 41.9 5.5 10.4 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.5 17.9 15.3 108.2 66.6 51.7 6.3 11.3 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.9 14.9 10.1 96.4 64.0 46.5 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.4 13.4 9.8 100.0 65.2 45.2 4.5 8.4 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.7 13.0 9.9 94.9 63.9 42.9 4.6 8.5 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.4 16.3 13.6 99.9 65.2 48.0 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.8 12.9 11.5 107.9 67.4 45.5 3.7 7.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.0 10.5 9.5 130.0 73.2 52.2 2.6 5.1 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.3 12.0 11.6 104.6 66.4 43.5 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.2 12.9 11.4 112.9 69.3 48.4 2.7 6.1 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.4 22.8 15.4 97.2 63.4 48.8 10.1 16.4 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 3.5 12.0 9.8 100.8 65.1 42.2 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------