***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 5.7 15.1 8.7 85.9 61.8 42.1 5.6 10.4 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 4.4 10.8 6.6 77.7 57.9 41.3 4.6 8.4 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.7 13.2 9.1 88.5 62.8 42.7 4.7 8.9 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 5.5 22.1 10.3 107.7 68.2 46.8 5.5 11.6 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.2 16.9 9.4 103.8 67.3 46.5 5.2 9.8 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 14.2 20.3 12.1 114.4 69.4 50.6 4.0 9.4 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.0 8.7 6.6 75.8 57.5 40.2 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.0 29.1 12.4 117.3 70.2 50.9 8.2 15.4 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.9 12.0 10.0 96.0 64.9 44.3 4.0 7.5 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.6 18.5 12.9 106.9 67.7 48.0 5.0 10.2 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.0 14.6 8.5 107.9 68.0 47.9 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.4 22.9 9.5 122.0 71.5 50.6 5.8 11.2 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.0 12.5 10.4 125.0 72.5 53.4 2.5 5.4 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.8 20.0 14.4 99.1 66.1 45.4 5.4 11.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.3 11.3 8.8 112.1 69.5 43.4 2.5 5.5 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.3 12.7 9.3 114.7 69.9 50.0 2.7 6.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 4.5 10.2 6.3 74.4 56.5 39.4 4.7 8.3 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.0 19.3 15.9 106.0 67.0 47.3 6.6 11.7 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 5.3 12.6 7.3 82.2 60.1 41.8 5.7 9.6 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.9 17.8 16.0 113.0 68.2 52.0 6.7 11.1 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.3 11.3 9.2 89.3 63.0 42.0 4.7 8.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 5.0 12.0 6.9 74.6 56.6 40.0 5.3 9.8 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.6 12.4 8.7 86.7 62.4 41.8 4.6 8.5 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.6 15.0 13.6 100.3 66.1 44.7 5.6 9.6 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.3 15.8 10.0 93.3 64.6 44.4 4.7 9.5 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.3 13.7 9.0 140.8 75.8 53.4 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.2 19.4 9.9 91.0 63.6 43.6 5.3 11.5 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 3.4 13.7 10.1 113.1 69.6 47.3 3.7 7.1 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.3 22.2 16.1 103.4 65.4 48.1 10.1 15.6 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.6 11.6 7.2 79.7 59.2 41.4 4.5 8.6 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------