***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 40.2 52.9 38.7 75.1 47.5 42.5 40.5 55.2 71.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 40.0 46.4 29.5 66.1 39.9 36.5 41.8 53.7 67.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 62.3 51.1 37.4 73.1 46.7 42.5 39.2 54.0 71.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 36.9 61.0 46.3 94.9 58.3 50.4 36.9 52.5 70.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 57.6 55.5 43.5 89.3 56.0 49.4 36.9 50.1 65.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 51.5 48.9 49.5 93.7 56.3 49.8 29.8 43.4 59.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 33.4 43.8 32.3 73.2 44.1 38.8 35.7 48.2 62.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 89.8 84.8 49.7 90.2 54.7 48.6 60.0 79.2 100.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 52.6 47.2 43.8 83.3 52.1 46.4 33.4 45.9 60.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 72.5 65.5 50.3 84.6 52.1 46.5 46.4 63.3 82.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 51.0 48.3 39.8 88.7 55.4 49.0 31.4 44.0 58.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 36.0 57.2 40.6 93.1 57.2 50.0 35.8 50.3 67.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 37.2 37.1 42.7 93.5 58.0 50.2 22.1 31.7 43.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 52.8 65.1 49.2 73.2 44.4 39.9 53.3 71.0 91.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 40.1 44.6 40.7 104.4 63.3 52.3 20.7 32.8 47.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 40.9 39.5 40.7 90.7 56.4 49.2 24.5 35.0 47.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 34.2 41.5 30.4 69.9 41.2 37.0 36.2 47.5 59.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 70.4 61.3 57.0 83.4 49.2 44.4 46.5 62.0 79.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 39.6 46.0 30.6 65.7 40.6 37.3 40.2 54.1 69.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 45.6 58.8 57.8 87.2 50.1 45.6 45.9 58.8 72.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 37.0 52.1 40.2 77.6 49.8 44.3 37.9 52.1 69.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 40.5 46.2 30.8 65.2 38.7 35.9 41.5 55.7 72.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 64.1 54.2 34.7 69.2 43.8 39.5 47.0 58.5 70.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 49.9 64.8 48.8 78.8 48.1 43.1 50.8 66.8 84.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 57.1 52.3 45.7 84.1 52.9 46.4 36.8 49.7 64.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 38.5 40.3 36.5 99.2 61.0 53.0 23.5 33.1 44.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 43.3 61.3 43.8 80.2 50.2 44.3 43.7 60.7 80.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 40.3 41.9 44.3 98.4 60.3 52.0 22.2 33.4 47.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 92.6 77.1 57.1 80.8 45.8 42.1 62.7 82.3 103.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 41.1 49.5 31.9 68.5 42.1 38.2 42.3 55.8 71.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------