***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 13.8 13.6 16.2 -1.4 24.7 28.9 14.1 14.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 13.3 13.0 15.9 -1.6 21.6 26.1 13.8 14.8 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 15.1 14.8 16.0 -1.7 21.7 25.3 15.6 16.6 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 9.4 8.7 13.4 -2.2 13.3 16.4 10.5 11.7 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 11.4 11.1 13.5 -2.2 13.2 15.7 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 93 7 0 100 10.5 10.2 11.4 -2.1 14.0 15.9 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 13.7 13.6 16.2 -1.4 24.2 28.6 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 90 10 0 100 5.4 5.1 11.3 -2.0 15.8 18.1 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 12.8 12.5 14.0 -2.2 13.1 15.8 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 96 4 0 100 12.7 12.4 12.1 -2.2 12.9 15.4 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 12.6 12.0 12.8 -2.5 10.1 12.0 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 10.7 10.5 12.2 -2.0 15.8 18.1 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 99 1 0 100 11.9 11.6 12.2 -2.1 12.9 14.5 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 13.4 13.1 13.9 -2.1 15.7 18.6 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 96 4 0 100 13.9 13.3 15.2 -2.3 10.6 13.4 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 99 1 0 100 12.5 12.1 12.8 -2.3 12.0 13.7 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 14.1 13.7 15.3 -1.7 18.3 23.1 14.6 15.4 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 11.3 11.0 11.4 -2.2 13.2 15.7 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 13.4 13.3 15.9 -1.5 22.6 26.6 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 7.2 7.1 9.3 -2.1 15.3 17.5 8.1 8.9 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 13.0 12.8 15.6 -1.9 18.6 21.8 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 13.0 12.9 15.6 -1.6 21.0 24.9 13.6 14.4 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 12.9 12.8 15.8 -1.5 23.6 27.1 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 12.7 12.3 13.7 -2.0 15.6 18.6 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 12.8 12.6 15.0 -1.8 18.8 22.3 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 11.7 11.6 11.8 -2.0 17.5 19.4 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 12.7 12.4 15.5 -1.6 21.8 25.9 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 92 8 0 100 11.8 11.4 14.1 -2.2 12.7 15.3 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 92 8 0 100 9.5 9.2 10.6 -2.1 14.6 16.7 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 13.8 13.6 16.3 -1.5 24.1 28.2 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------