***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 16.7 17.7 20.5 2.0 86.0 78.5 14.7 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 16.6 17.3 20.5 1.8 81.7 74.7 14.5 15.5 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 18.6 19.4 20.3 1.6 81.2 74.4 16.6 17.5 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 14.1 14.7 18.1 1.3 78.6 71.2 11.9 12.9 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 15.4 15.9 17.6 1.3 78.0 71.0 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 14.1 14.6 15.9 1.2 80.8 71.5 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 17.0 17.7 20.6 1.9 82.7 75.3 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 9.6 10.2 15.7 1.3 80.9 73.2 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 16.5 17.1 18.0 1.4 80.5 73.3 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 16.3 16.7 16.3 1.2 78.2 71.1 14.6 15.3 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 16.0 16.4 17.1 1.2 78.3 71.0 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 14.0 14.8 17.0 1.5 84.6 76.1 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 15.3 16.0 16.2 1.3 83.6 74.2 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 16.9 17.2 17.7 1.2 75.6 68.8 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 17.6 18.3 19.2 1.6 83.5 75.1 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 16.6 17.2 16.9 1.2 79.3 71.2 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 17.5 17.8 19.6 1.4 75.5 69.2 15.6 16.5 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 14.6 15.0 15.5 1.1 76.0 69.0 12.8 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 16.7 17.3 20.3 1.8 81.6 74.6 14.8 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 10.4 10.5 13.5 0.9 72.4 66.3 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 16.4 17.1 19.4 1.6 82.2 74.9 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.5 19.4 1.3 74.4 68.1 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 16.1 16.8 19.9 1.7 82.0 74.7 14.2 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 16.7 17.1 17.6 1.2 77.1 70.1 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 16.4 17.3 18.7 1.6 83.1 75.0 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 15.0 15.7 16.5 1.4 84.9 76.2 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 16.6 17.8 19.6 1.9 86.0 77.7 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 15.4 16.0 18.6 1.4 80.0 72.3 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 13.4 13.7 14.7 1.0 74.6 67.3 11.6 12.5 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 17.1 17.9 20.7 1.9 83.3 76.1 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------