***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 16.0 16.2 19.0 1.0 80.2 73.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 16.0 16.3 19.0 0.9 78.0 72.0 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 17.7 17.9 18.8 0.7 72.7 67.6 16.5 17.1 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 12.5 12.7 16.5 0.3 61.4 58.3 11.8 12.4 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.2 16.2 0.3 61.5 58.6 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.1 14.3 0.3 61.8 58.4 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 16.1 16.4 19.1 1.0 79.6 73.6 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.2 8.4 14.2 0.4 65.4 61.7 7.6 8.0 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 15.6 15.5 16.5 0.4 64.5 61.2 14.5 15.0 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.2 14.8 0.3 60.6 57.9 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.1 15.6 0.3 60.2 57.4 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 13.2 13.3 15.4 0.6 70.6 66.1 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.5 14.8 0.4 65.3 61.4 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.0 16.4 0.3 62.5 59.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.7 17.7 0.5 66.6 62.2 15.7 16.2 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 15.3 15.5 15.4 0.3 61.2 58.2 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 16.5 16.5 18.2 0.6 70.2 65.7 15.3 15.9 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.7 14.1 0.2 59.8 57.3 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 15.9 16.1 18.9 0.9 77.4 71.6 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.5 9.5 12.1 0.2 57.4 55.1 8.8 9.3 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 15.4 15.5 18.0 0.6 70.1 65.6 14.3 14.9 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 15.5 15.5 18.2 0.6 69.3 65.1 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 15.3 15.5 18.5 0.9 76.7 71.2 14.2 14.7 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.7 16.3 0.4 63.6 60.3 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 15.4 15.5 17.3 0.6 71.7 66.6 14.4 14.9 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 13.9 14.3 14.9 0.5 68.3 63.7 13.4 13.8 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 15.6 15.9 18.1 0.9 79.2 72.5 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 14.2 14.4 17.0 0.4 63.1 59.7 13.5 14.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.4 13.4 0.3 60.1 57.5 11.6 12.1 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 16.2 16.5 19.2 1.0 79.3 73.1 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------