***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 30.1 31.4 30.2 2.8 86.5 78.0 27.8 28.8 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 29.5 30.9 30.7 3.0 87.8 79.4 27.3 28.3 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 29.8 31.0 30.1 2.5 84.2 75.7 27.2 28.3 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 23.1 23.9 27.8 1.9 78.0 70.6 20.0 21.4 22.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 30.5 31.2 27.6 1.9 77.2 69.8 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 28.8 29.4 25.3 1.6 74.3 66.5 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 29.5 30.9 30.5 2.9 87.1 79.1 27.1 28.1 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 18.2 18.9 26.1 2.0 78.4 70.3 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 30.0 30.8 28.1 2.1 79.0 71.2 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 29.8 30.5 26.5 1.9 77.1 69.7 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 30.1 30.8 27.1 1.9 77.0 69.5 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 29.3 30.3 27.4 2.2 81.1 72.1 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 30.4 31.3 26.6 2.0 78.2 69.6 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 29.2 30.0 27.7 2.1 80.4 72.4 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 30.9 31.9 28.7 2.2 81.7 73.8 28.1 29.4 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 31.0 31.6 26.9 1.8 75.6 68.1 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 28.9 29.9 29.9 2.5 84.1 76.6 26.6 27.6 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 28.9 29.6 25.8 1.8 76.9 69.6 26.0 27.3 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 29.2 30.6 30.6 3.0 87.8 78.9 26.8 27.8 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 24.5 25.1 23.7 1.7 75.0 67.8 21.5 23.0 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 30.1 31.1 29.2 2.3 81.6 73.4 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 29.5 30.5 29.7 2.4 84.1 76.3 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 29.4 30.7 30.1 2.9 87.2 77.8 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 29.0 29.9 27.7 2.1 79.9 71.9 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 29.9 31.1 28.2 2.4 83.4 75.0 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 29.8 31.0 27.0 2.2 81.2 71.6 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 29.4 30.7 29.2 2.7 86.2 77.6 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 30.9 31.6 28.1 1.9 77.1 69.9 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 24.0 24.6 24.7 1.7 75.5 68.4 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 29.3 30.7 30.7 3.0 87.7 79.2 27.1 28.1 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------