***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 29.7 31.4 32.3 3.4 89.6 80.6 26.9 28.1 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 29.6 31.1 32.6 3.6 89.4 80.6 26.8 27.9 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 29.4 30.9 32.1 3.1 87.9 78.3 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 22.5 23.8 30.1 2.6 84.7 75.2 19.7 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 29.8 31.1 29.9 2.5 84.3 74.4 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 28.8 30.3 27.7 2.6 86.9 76.1 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 29.4 31.0 32.4 3.5 89.3 80.6 26.6 27.8 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 17.8 19.3 28.4 2.7 87.3 76.2 15.0 16.2 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 29.4 30.7 30.2 2.7 85.6 75.2 26.8 28.0 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 29.2 30.4 28.8 2.6 85.4 74.6 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 29.5 30.7 29.4 2.6 85.4 75.0 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 28.7 30.4 29.8 3.0 89.6 78.5 26.0 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 30.0 31.6 29.1 2.9 88.6 77.6 27.0 28.3 29.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 28.9 30.0 29.6 2.6 84.7 74.4 26.7 27.7 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 30.6 32.1 31.0 2.9 88.1 78.6 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 30.6 31.9 29.3 2.5 85.2 75.1 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 29.0 30.2 31.8 3.1 86.1 77.8 26.2 27.4 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 28.2 29.4 27.9 2.5 84.7 73.7 25.7 26.8 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 29.1 30.7 32.5 3.5 89.5 80.4 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 24.2 25.3 25.9 2.3 83.8 73.1 21.3 22.5 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 29.5 30.8 31.3 2.9 86.6 76.7 26.8 28.0 29.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 29.5 30.7 31.5 3.0 85.6 76.9 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 29.2 30.8 32.0 3.4 89.4 79.8 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 28.6 29.8 29.7 2.7 85.6 74.7 26.3 27.3 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 29.7 31.1 30.3 3.0 87.3 77.9 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 29.7 31.6 29.5 3.0 90.7 79.6 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 29.1 30.7 31.3 3.3 89.3 80.0 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 30.6 31.9 30.5 2.6 85.2 75.7 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 23.8 24.9 26.8 2.4 83.2 72.5 21.0 22.2 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 29.4 31.0 32.7 3.6 89.8 80.9 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------