***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 30.1 31.3 32.2 2.7 83.7 77.1 27.2 28.5 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 30.2 31.0 32.3 2.6 81.4 75.3 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 30.1 31.0 32.0 2.4 80.5 74.6 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 23.2 23.9 30.0 2.0 78.7 71.6 20.5 21.7 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 30.6 31.3 29.8 2.0 77.2 70.7 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 29.1 29.7 27.4 1.8 79.0 71.7 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 30.1 30.9 32.2 2.6 81.4 75.3 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 18.1 18.8 28.1 2.0 78.6 71.5 15.6 16.7 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 30.0 30.8 30.1 2.1 78.0 71.6 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 29.6 30.2 28.6 2.0 76.9 70.4 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 30.0 30.7 29.3 2.0 77.9 71.0 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 29.3 30.2 29.5 2.3 81.3 73.9 26.5 27.7 28.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 30.5 31.2 28.8 2.1 80.4 73.3 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 29.6 30.0 29.4 1.9 74.9 69.7 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 31.1 32.2 30.8 2.2 83.0 75.0 28.6 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 31.2 31.8 29.2 1.9 77.5 70.9 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 29.5 30.1 31.6 2.2 76.8 71.2 26.9 28.1 29.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 28.7 29.1 27.7 1.8 74.8 68.9 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 29.6 30.4 32.3 2.6 81.7 75.6 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 24.4 24.6 25.6 1.6 73.0 67.3 21.8 23.0 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 30.1 30.9 31.2 2.3 79.8 73.4 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 29.9 30.4 31.3 2.1 76.1 70.7 27.4 28.5 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 29.8 30.6 31.8 2.6 81.5 75.7 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 29.4 29.9 29.5 2.0 76.3 70.6 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 30.4 31.4 30.3 2.4 82.3 75.0 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 29.9 30.8 29.3 2.3 82.3 75.5 27.6 28.6 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 29.9 31.0 31.2 2.6 84.0 76.8 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 31.2 31.9 30.4 2.0 78.9 71.9 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 24.1 24.3 26.6 1.7 72.8 67.3 21.3 22.6 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 30.0 30.9 32.5 2.7 82.4 76.3 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------