***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 5.2 8.2 10.7 55.8 45.3 35.1 5.4 9.4 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 6.8 8.7 10.0 52.3 42.4 36.8 6.4 10.8 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 7.8 11.9 10.7 59.5 46.5 38.1 7.2 13.2 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 3.7 5.4 9.1 46.1 38.6 30.6 4.2 8.4 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.7 5.5 9.6 48.9 40.5 32.5 3.8 8.4 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.3 3.3 9.9 52.4 43.3 36.8 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 5.6 7.3 9.9 50.4 41.0 36.0 5.4 9.7 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 5.0 7.1 9.6 52.1 40.9 34.3 4.8 10.4 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.0 4.7 10.3 52.0 42.4 34.5 2.7 6.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.5 6.4 11.2 53.2 41.7 35.0 4.0 9.3 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 3.0 4.5 7.9 47.8 39.8 31.8 3.2 6.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.7 3.9 7.0 46.4 38.8 31.6 2.8 6.2 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.7 3.4 7.3 42.0 39.9 32.5 2.6 5.1 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 9.1 14.5 13.0 64.7 47.5 38.3 9.0 15.5 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 2.0 2.8 7.8 41.7 36.3 29.3 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.8 3.8 8.3 49.7 42.9 35.7 2.4 5.0 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.5 8.7 10.0 52.8 42.5 37.6 6.1 11.1 17.9 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.2 8.2 13.8 63.5 45.9 38.4 4.6 9.5 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 6.9 9.0 10.1 53.0 42.9 36.4 6.7 11.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.9 7.8 13.2 67.2 47.4 40.4 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.6 9.3 10.7 60.1 47.4 38.4 5.2 10.2 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.4 9.5 10.3 54.8 44.4 38.8 6.5 11.3 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 7.5 10.5 10.2 52.9 42.6 35.2 7.3 13.6 22.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.7 15.0 12.7 62.6 46.6 38.4 9.3 16.5 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 5.5 7.6 11.1 50.8 40.9 33.2 5.9 10.1 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.3 5.4 9.2 59.5 46.9 41.1 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 5.1 8.0 12.0 54.6 43.2 34.8 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 2.4 3.2 7.7 41.7 36.0 28.4 2.9 5.0 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.4 13.5 13.6 66.1 47.4 39.1 7.9 14.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 9.1 12.0 10.4 54.9 43.9 37.1 9.3 13.7 18.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------